A股慢牛，谁来接力？ |《财经》封面

Market Overview - The A-share market is experiencing a "slow bull" trend, reaching a ten-year high driven by policy support, capital inflows, and the rise of the technology sector [2][43] - The Shanghai Composite Index has seen significant gains, with a year-to-date increase of 14.67% and a rise of 24.12% since April 8 [2][3] Sector Performance - Technology stocks are leading the market, with the ChiNext Index, STAR Market 50, and North Star 50 showing increases of 56.44%, 47.66%, and 48.88% respectively since April 8 [3] - The AI chip leader, Cambricon, has reached a historical high, surpassing Kweichow Moutai to become the new stock king of A-shares [3][14] Economic and Policy Factors - The current market rally is attributed to deeper factors beyond traditional views of policy and capital, including structural economic adjustments and a shift towards high-quality development [3][19] - The People's Bank of China has indicated a strong expectation for interest rate declines, which historically correlates with market uptrends [3][20] Investment Trends - There is a notable divergence in market sentiment, with public and private funds responding differently; public funds are seeing net redemptions while private funds are gaining traction [4][22] - The total scale of A-share ETFs has surpassed 5 trillion yuan, indicating a shift in investment strategies towards thematic and sector-focused ETFs [4][23] Future Outlook - The political bureau has expressed a commitment to enhancing the attractiveness and inclusivity of the domestic capital market, aiming to sustain the current positive momentum [5][18] - Analysts suggest that the current market conditions could lead to a prolonged "slow bull" phase, contingent on continued economic recovery and structural reforms [5][37] Capital Flow Dynamics - There is evidence of a "deposit migration" trend, with significant capital moving from bank deposits to the stock market, potentially amounting to 5 trillion to 7 trillion yuan in future inflows [26][33] - The net inflow of funds into the A-share market is estimated to be between 1.5 trillion and 1.7 trillion yuan in the first half of the year, with a substantial portion coming from insurance companies [20][21] Sectoral Shifts - The technology sector, particularly in AI and semiconductor industries, is expected to drive future growth, with significant advancements noted in domestic innovation and production capabilities [13][38] - The performance of the electronics sector has been particularly strong, with an average net profit growth rate of 41.76%, indicating a shift towards high-growth industries [38]