21评论丨判断“长牛”的四大指标

Group 1 - The A-share market has become active, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a nearly ten-year high, surpassing 3700 points for the first time since August 2015, and the CSI 300 Index breaking 4200 points [2] - The onshore bond market indicates a more positive long-term macroeconomic outlook, with the yields on 10-year and 30-year government bonds rising to 1.78% and 2.11%, respectively, since late June [2] - Factors driving the A-share market include improved liquidity, a shift of funds from the bond market and savings to the stock market, and expectations of policy easing [2] Group 2 - Domestic liquidity has improved, with Morgan Stanley's liquidity indicator turning positive in June, primarily due to large-scale government bond issuance [3] - "Anti-involution" measures are boosting market confidence, as expectations for price stabilization and improved supply-demand relationships grow [3] - The State Council's recent meeting emphasized the need to consolidate and expand economic recovery, indicating further macroeconomic policy support [3] Group 3 - Funds may shift from bonds and fixed deposits to the stock market, as rising bond yields make equities more attractive [4] - Key indicators for assessing the sustainability of the current bull market include onshore RMB bond yields, macro policy implementation in Q3 and Q4, and A-share market performance in the second half of the year [5] - The balance of margin financing and securities lending has exceeded 2 trillion RMB (approximately 290 billion USD), reaching a historical high for A-shares [6]