奥克斯上市首日破发：业绩增长背后的低价策略，红利和风险并存

Core Viewpoint - On September 2, 2023, Aux Electric Co., Ltd. officially listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, but its market debut was lackluster, with shares closing at HKD 16.48, down 5.40% from the issue price, resulting in a market capitalization of approximately HKD 26.2 billion [1]. Group 1: Company Background and Market Position - Aux Electric has over 30 years of experience in the air conditioning industry and previously listed on the New Third Board for a brief period in 2016 [2]. - After delisting, the company integrated its air conditioning business under Ningbo Aux Electric and initiated listing guidance for the Shanghai Stock Exchange in October 2018, which was completed in June 2023, but further actions were delayed [3]. - In January 2025, Aux submitted its listing application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, marking a strategic shift [4]. Group 2: Market Performance and Financials - The global air conditioning market is experiencing slow but steady growth, with sales projected to increase from 233 million units in 2018 to 261 million units in 2024, a CAGR of 2.0%. China's market is expected to grow from 107 million units to 115 million units, a CAGR of 1.2% [5]. - Aux is the fifth-largest air conditioning provider globally with a market share of 7.1% and the fourth-largest in China with a market share of 7.3% as of 2024 [5]. - From 2022 to 2024, Aux's revenue grew from CNY 19.528 billion to CNY 29.759 billion, with a CAGR of 23.4%, while net profit increased from CNY 1.442 billion to CNY 2.910 billion, with a CAGR of 42.1% [5]. Group 3: Revenue Sources and Profitability - Aux's revenue primarily comes from product sales, with household air conditioning accounting for nearly 90% of total revenue [6][7]. - The gross margin for household air conditioning was 19.2% in 2024, compared to competitors like Gree and Haier, which had higher margins [7][8]. - The company has faced challenges in maintaining its low-price strategy, which has historically driven sales but has led to lower profitability [9][10]. Group 4: Research and Development - Aux's R&D spending from 2022 to 2024 was relatively low, at CNY 3.98 billion, CNY 5.67 billion, and CNY 7.10 billion, representing only 2.0% to 2.4% of total revenue [12]. - The company has been involved in multiple intellectual property lawsuits, notably with Gree, which has impacted its reputation and financial resources [12]. Group 5: Cash Flow and Dividend Policy - As of the end of 2024, Aux had cash and cash equivalents of CNY 2.908 billion, with significant short-term and long-term bank borrowings [16]. - The company has experienced a decline in net cash flow from operating activities, dropping from CNY 4.004 billion in 2022 to CNY 2.518 billion in 2024 [16]. - Aux declared a substantial dividend of CNY 3.794 billion in 2024, raising concerns about the sustainability of its cash flow and the rationale behind such a distribution [17].