贺博生：9.3黄金强势上涨突破新高何时下跌？原油今日行情最新操作建议

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - Gold prices have continued to rise, breaking the psychological barrier of $3500, reaching a historical high due to increased expectations of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, with a probability of 89% according to CME FedWatch [1] - Concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve following the dismissal of board member Lisa Cook have intensified safe-haven buying, alongside uncertainties in U.S. tariff policies and escalating geopolitical tensions in Ukraine and the Middle East [1] - The overall trend for gold remains bullish, although short-term consolidation may occur, with key data releases such as the ISM Manufacturing PMI and non-farm payrolls to influence future price direction [1] Group 2: Technical Analysis of Gold - After breaking the historical high, gold may face a correction, but the overall trend remains bullish, with potential targets of $3550 to $3580 if it surpasses the $3510 resistance level [2] - Key support is identified at $3465; as long as this level holds, the bullish trend is intact, but a drop below this could signal a short-term adjustment [2] - The MACD indicator shows a bullish trend, and the RSI is approaching overbought territory, suggesting a possible short-term pullback [4] Group 3: Oil Market Analysis - International oil prices have rebounded, with Brent crude reaching $68.35 and WTI at $64.82, influenced by supply concerns due to the ongoing Ukraine conflict, which has reportedly halted approximately 1.1 million barrels per day of Russian refining capacity [5] - The market is currently balancing between supply concerns and trade friction pressures, with the direction of prices heavily reliant on signals from OPEC+ meetings [5] - The overall trend for oil appears to be downward in the medium term, despite short-term upward movements, as indicated by the MACD and price action [6] Group 4: Technical Analysis of Oil - Oil prices are showing signs of upward movement after a period of consolidation, with short-term resistance at $67.0 to $68.0 and support at $64.0 to $63.0 [6] - The MACD indicator suggests that bullish momentum is gaining strength, indicating a higher probability of continued upward movement in the short term [6]