“反内卷”热度再起 多晶硅期价强势上涨

Core Viewpoint - The recent strong rebound in polysilicon prices is influenced by renewed "anti-involution" sentiment and rising spot market quotes, despite ongoing supply-demand imbalances in the market [2][3] Group 1: Market Dynamics - On September 2, the main contract for polysilicon futures (PS2511) closed at 51,875 yuan/ton, marking a 3.97% increase [2] - Analysts indicate that the previous pressure from supply-demand imbalance and the temporary cooling of "anti-involution" sentiment had suppressed polysilicon prices [2] - The current average price for N-type polysilicon is reported at 51,100 yuan/ton, with major domestic polysilicon producers raising their quotes [2] Group 2: Production and Inventory - The supply-demand structure in the polysilicon market remains unchanged, with a core issue of supply-demand imbalance [3] - In August, polysilicon production is expected to reach 120,000 to 130,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 to 20,000 tons month-on-month [3] - Current total social inventory of polysilicon is estimated to be between 440,000 to 450,000 tons, indicating increasing inventory pressure [3] Group 3: Future Outlook - Despite the increase in polysilicon production in August, there are expectations of production control in September, which may lead to a decrease in output [3] - The market is currently characterized by a "weak reality" and "strong expectations" dynamic, with a focus on policy developments and their impact on the market [4] - Analysts suggest that if policies are implemented slowly or lack strength, prices may adjust downward, while stronger-than-expected policies could lead to further price increases [3][4]