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巨化股份(600160):制冷剂价格持续上涨 高景气周期有望延续

Core Viewpoint - The company reported strong financial performance in the first half of 2025, with significant increases in revenue and net profit, driven by rising prices in the refrigerant market and improved sales across most product lines [1][2]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 13.331 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.36%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.051 billion yuan, up 146.97% year-on-year [1]. - In Q2 2025, the company recorded operating revenue of 7.531 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.93%, and a net profit of 1.242 billion yuan, up 138.82% year-on-year [1]. - The company set a record for single-quarter revenue and net profit in Q2 2025, with a quarter-on-quarter revenue increase of 29.84% and net profit increase of 53.57% [1]. Product Performance - The company saw an increase in production and sales volumes for most products, with the exception of refrigerants and food packaging materials, which experienced slight declines [1]. - Specific sales volumes for various product segments in H1 2025 included: fluorochemical raw materials (187,500 tons, +11.72%), refrigerants (154,600 tons, -4.19%), fluoropolymer materials (22,900 tons, +7.45%), fluorine fine chemicals (2,900 tons, +4.43%), food packaging materials (32,100 tons, -16.82%), petrochemical materials (283,900 tons, +11.48%), and basic chemical products (964,300 tons, +7.55%) [1]. Price Trends - The average prices for various products in H1 2025 were as follows: fluorine refrigerants (36,290 yuan/ton, +10.24%), refrigerants (39,372 yuan/ton, +61.88%), fluoropolymer materials (38,372 yuan/ton, -2.80%), fluorine fine chemicals (63,064 yuan/ton, +20.87%), food packaging materials (11,013 yuan/ton, -2.55%), petrochemical materials (7,138 yuan/ton, -8.66%), and basic chemical products (1,557 yuan/ton, +6.55%) [1]. Industry Outlook - 2024 marked the beginning of a new cycle for third-generation refrigerants, with continued upward trends observed in 2025 [2]. - In Q2 2025, the average prices for third-generation refrigerants R32, R134a, and R125 were 49,811 yuan/ton, 47,689 yuan/ton, and 45,270 yuan/ton, reflecting year-on-year increases of 49.63%, 52.41%, and 8.35% respectively [2]. - The company holds a leading position in the refrigerant market, with significant production quotas for HCFC-22 and HFCs, accounting for 26.10% and 39.6% of national shares respectively [2]. Investment Recommendations - Based on the strong performance in the first half of 2025, the company's net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been revised upwards to 4.356 billion yuan, 4.879 billion yuan, and 7.229 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS estimates of 1.61, 2.18, and 2.68 yuan per share [3]. - The company is expected to benefit from the high growth potential in the refrigerant industry, maintaining a "buy" rating [3].