蓝天燃气(605368)：业绩短期承压 不改高分红策略

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, with expectations of continued challenges in the pipeline and urban natural gas segments due to weak demand and delayed pricing adjustments for residential customers [1][2][4]. Revenue and Profit Summary - The company achieved revenue of 2.254 billion yuan in 1H25, a year-on-year decrease of 14%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 205 million yuan, down 40% year-on-year [1]. - In Q2, revenue was 858 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 17% and a quarter-on-quarter decline of 39% [1]. - The company's pipeline natural gas revenue fell by 11.5% year-on-year to 1.047 billion yuan, primarily due to a decrease in sales volume and some major customers halting purchases [1][2]. Margin Analysis - The gross margin for pipeline natural gas decreased by 1.1 percentage points to 9.1%, attributed to a narrowing of the gross profit margin [1]. - Urban natural gas revenue declined by 8.7% year-on-year to 915 million yuan, with a gross margin decrease of 4.8 percentage points to 9.8% due to delayed pricing adjustments for residential customers and promotional discounts for industrial and commercial gas [2]. Dividend and Cash Flow - The company proposed a mid-term dividend of 286 million yuan, representing a year-on-year decrease of 10%, with a dividend per share (DPS) of 0.40 yuan and a payout ratio of 140%, higher than the previous year's 93% [3]. - Operating cash inflow for 1H25 was 112 million yuan, down 50% year-on-year, influenced by accounts receivable from a heat source plant [3]. Profit Forecast and Target Price Adjustment - The company revised down its net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 by 18% to 4.47 billion yuan, reflecting weaker-than-expected demand in the pipeline and urban natural gas sectors [4]. - The target price was adjusted to 10.63 yuan, down from 12.16 yuan, based on a revised price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 17 times for 2025 [4].