生猪 维持区间操作

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in national pork reserves and declining pig prices indicate a critical phase for the pork industry, with the pig-to-grain ratio falling below the warning line, prompting government intervention to stabilize prices and encourage quality production [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The National Development and Reform Commission auctioned 10,000 tons of domestic frozen pork at prices between 19.90 to 20.00 yuan per kilogram, translating to a live pig price of approximately 13.6 to 13.8 yuan per kilogram, marking a temporary bottom for current pork prices [1] - The agricultural sector is actively working to optimize production capacity by eliminating inefficient sows and controlling weights, although the overall impact on capacity reduction remains limited [2][3] Group 2: Production and Capacity - In July, the number of sows eliminated increased by 2.1% month-on-month, while the total breeding sow inventory decreased by 10,000 heads to 40.42 million heads [2] - Major companies are reducing costs and improving efficiency, with leading firms achieving production costs around 12 yuan per kilogram, while others hover around 13 yuan per kilogram [3] Group 3: Price Trends and Forecasts - As of mid-2025, live pig inventory reached 42.447 million heads, with a year-on-year increase of 2.2%, but prices have dropped to a five-year low of 14,677 yuan per ton due to weak demand and high slaughter losses [5] - The market is expected to face increased supply pressure in the second half of the year, with a predicted rise in commodity pig supply from September to November, limiting significant price fluctuations [5][6] Group 4: Future Considerations - The uncertainty in the market largely hinges on whether producers will continue to follow policy guidance to reduce weights, with average weights for pigs being monitored closely [6] - Short-term price increases may occur due to seasonal factors, but a return to a demand lull post-holidays is anticipated, which could suppress prices [6]