黄金今日行情走势要点分析（2025.9.3）

Group 1: Fundamental Analysis - The U.S. manufacturing sector continues to shrink, with the August PMI at 48.7, indicating a contraction for six consecutive months, which raises recession risks [2] - The high tariff policies of the Trump administration have led to increased costs for imported components, with the average tariff rate reaching a century high, negatively impacting the business environment [2] - The recent court ruling questioning the legality of most tariff measures has heightened market concerns about deteriorating trade relations and reduced tariff revenue, leading to declines in major U.S. stock indices [2] Group 2: Market Reactions - The low manufacturing performance has intensified recession fears, prompting investors to shift towards safe-haven assets like gold [2] - The market anticipates a 90% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve on September 17, with expectations of a total cut of 57 basis points for the year [3] - The global largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, has seen its holdings rise to 977.68 tons, the highest since August 2022, indicating strong demand for gold [3] Group 3: Technical Analysis - Gold prices have shown a strong bullish trend, achieving six consecutive days of gains, with the 5-day moving average acting as a crucial support level around 3480 [7] - Key support levels for gold are identified at 3500, 3480, and the 3470-3466 range, while resistance levels are noted at 3558, 3570, 3582, and 3606 [8][9] - The current market structure indicates a strong bullish sentiment, with no clear signs of a corrective phase, suggesting a continued focus on long positions [7]