【UNFX 课堂】避险情绪宽松预期双驱动黄金白银为何一路狂飙

Market Dynamics - As of the latest trading day, COMEX gold futures have surpassed $2200 per ounce, with silver also rising, showing an annual increase of over 15% [2] - Domestic gold futures have reached historical highs, making them one of the best-performing asset classes this year [2] Core Logic Behind the Rise - Increased Risk Aversion: Ongoing geopolitical risks (Middle East conflicts, Russia-Ukraine situation) and heightened concerns over global economic slowdown have led to increased volatility in the stock market, driving funds into precious metals as a safe haven [3] - Support from Easing Expectations: The market widely anticipates that the Federal Reserve will initiate interest rate cuts within the year, while central banks globally continue to increase their gold reserves, with 2023 seeing record-high gold purchases. The decline in real interest rates reduces the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold [3] Observational Insights - Historically, precious metal markets tend to perform strongest during periods of overlapping "risk events" and "monetary easing." Currently, the market is facing several conditions: acceleration of global "de-dollarization," institutionalization of central bank gold demand, and concentrated long positions in the derivatives market [3]