dbg盾博：两种因素将导致美股不断上涨

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the US stock market has experienced four consecutive months of growth, driven by the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and strong corporate earnings, with Morgan Stanley strategist Wilson believing this upward trend will continue [1][3] - Wilson predicts that the current economic phase in the US is in the "early cycle stage," where lower borrowing costs alleviate corporate financing pressures, creating favorable conditions for profit growth through expansion, R&D investment, and debt optimization [3] - Small-cap stocks, which are more sensitive to interest rate changes, are expected to see improved financing conditions and profit expectations as the Fed's rate-cutting cycle begins, contributing to overall market growth [3] Group 2 - Wilson asserts that the stock market has not fully priced in the benefits of future interest rate cuts, indicating further upside potential for the market as these policies are implemented [3] - Since April, the S&P 500 index has surged to a record high, aided by reduced concerns over US tariff policies and a growing optimism surrounding artificial intelligence, which has positively impacted tech giants' stock prices [3] - Evercore ISI strategists forecast a potential 20% increase in the S&P 500 index by the end of 2026 due to the influence of artificial intelligence [4] Group 3 - The focus of the market is currently on labor market data, which is closely tied to inflation; a hot job market could lead to increased inflationary pressures, while a moderate job market may allow for a smoother path for interest rate cuts [4] - Wilson warns of a seasonal weakness trend in September, suggesting that short-term consolidation could help the market digest previous gains and reduce valuation bubble risks, setting the stage for a healthier market environment [4] - Goldman Sachs notes that institutional investors are currently cautious after two months of selling, but believes that as long as there are no significant negative impacts on economic fundamentals, corporate earnings, or policy direction, any market declines will be limited [4]