精准拿捏：乌克兰无人机袭击奏效，俄罗斯最大油港出口量骤减一半

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a significant operational crisis at Russia's key oil export hub, Ust-Luga port, due to ongoing Ukrainian drone attacks, leading to a drastic reduction in oil export capacity and exposing vulnerabilities in Russia's energy infrastructure [3][5]. Group 1: Impact on Oil Exports - Ust-Luga port's daily oil export volume has plummeted to 350,000 barrels in September, a 50% decrease from its normal capacity of 700,000 barrels [3]. - The operational crisis was triggered by a precise strike on the Ulyanovsk pumping station on August 4, which is crucial for transporting oil to Ust-Luga [5]. - The damage to the pumping station is more severe than expected, with full restoration anticipated to take at least 45 days due to the need for special replacement parts [5]. Group 2: Regional Supply Chain Disruption - The disruption of the "Friendship" pipeline's eastern supply line has been ongoing for 26 days, affecting oil supply to refineries in Belarus, Slovakia, and Hungary [6]. - Slovakia's Ministry of Economy announced a trial supply rate of 800 cubic meters per hour, only 30% of the normal flow [6]. - Hungary's energy reserves are reported to last only 17 days under normal consumption [6]. Group 3: Emergency Response and Cost Implications - In response to the crisis, approximately 40% of the oil originally scheduled for export from Ust-Luga is being rerouted by rail to Novorossiysk and Primorsk ports [8]. - The volume of oil tanker arrivals at these ports surged by 120% in late August, but the rerouting has increased logistics costs by $5 to $7 per barrel [8]. - Despite these efforts, it is projected that Russia's total oil exports will still decrease by 12.5% in September [8]. Group 4: Broader Implications for the Energy Market - Analysts indicate that the attacks have led to an 18% reduction in Russian refining capacity, raising concerns about potential price volatility in the European energy market as winter approaches [13]. - The ongoing conflict has escalated into a "shadow war" targeting energy infrastructure, with Ukraine expanding its strike capabilities [13].