地缘事件影响供需 燃料油市场波动加剧

Core Insights - In August, international oil prices exhibited a "V" shaped trend, with Brent crude oil prices initially dropping below $70 per barrel due to disappointing U.S. non-farm payroll data, followed by a rebound towards the end of the month, closing at approximately $68 per barrel, reflecting a recovery of about 4.6% from the lows [1] - The volatility in high-sulfur fuel oil prices was primarily driven by geopolitical events, particularly the increased frequency of attacks on energy facilities by Ukraine, which significantly reduced Russian crude processing capacity [2] - The supply of low-sulfur fuel oil remained ample, with stable exports from South Sudan and Kuwait, while domestic production saw a slight decline [3] Price Movements - Brent crude oil prices fell to a low of $65 per barrel, marking a nearly 7% decline from the beginning of the month, before rebounding to $68 per barrel by August 25 [1] - High-sulfur fuel oil prices dropped to a low of 2684 yuan per ton, a decrease of nearly 9%, before recovering to above 2900 yuan per ton, reflecting an increase of about 8% [1] - Low-sulfur fuel oil prices also experienced fluctuations, with the main contract closing at 3526 yuan per ton after a decline of 7% from the monthly high [1] Supply Dynamics - Russian crude processing fell to an average of 5.14 million barrels per day, a decrease of over 400,000 barrels compared to the last week of July, due to attacks on refineries [2] - High-sulfur fuel oil exports from Russia remained stable at approximately 1.99 million tons, with a notable decrease in exports to Saudi Arabia [2] - Domestic low-sulfur fuel oil production was approximately 1.019 million tons in July, reflecting a month-on-month decline of 3.8% [3] Demand Trends - Demand for high-sulfur fuel oil for power generation weakened as summer ended, with Egypt canceling about half of its planned high-sulfur fuel oil orders due to decreasing temperatures and increased natural gas usage [4] - In Singapore, July's bunker fuel consumption increased by 14.8% month-on-month, with high-sulfur fuel oil accounting for 40.7% of the total [4] - The overall market for high-sulfur fuel oil showed signs of improvement due to geopolitical influences, with a rebound in the high-sulfur to crude oil crack spread [4]