Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in national pork reserves and declining pig prices indicate a critical phase for the pork industry, with the government intervening to stabilize prices while promoting the transition to higher quality production capacity [1][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The national average price for frozen pork was auctioned at 19.90 to 20.00 yuan per kilogram, translating to a live pig price of approximately 13.6 to 13.8 yuan per kilogram, marking a potential bottom for current pig prices [1]. - The pig-to-grain ratio has fallen below the warning line of 6:1, indicating a concerning trend for the industry [1]. - The overall pig inventory as of mid-2025 was reported at 42.447 million heads, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.2%, while the total number of pigs slaughtered in the first half of the year was 36.619 million, up 0.6% year-on-year [4]. Group 2: Production Adjustments - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs has mandated the elimination of inefficient sows and control over secondary fattening and slaughter weights to alleviate overcapacity in the industry [1]. - In July, the number of sows eliminated increased by 2.1% month-on-month, while the total breeding sow inventory decreased by 10,000 heads to 40.42 million heads [2]. - Major enterprises are leveraging technological and managerial advantages to accelerate capacity consolidation, while smaller farms are gradually exiting low-efficiency production under policy guidance [1][2]. Group 3: Profitability and Cost Management - The profitability of pig farming has been maintained for about a year and a half, with leading companies reducing costs to around 12 yuan per kilogram, while others hover around 13 yuan per kilogram [3]. - Companies are optimizing sow structures and improving production efficiency, which has become a significant barrier to capacity reduction due to sustained profit realization [3]. - The average weight of pigs at the end of August was reported at 127.83 kilograms, an increase of 1.1 kilograms year-on-year, indicating a trend towards heavier pigs in the market [5]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The market is expected to face increased supply pressure in the second half of the year, with a predicted rise in the number of market-ready pigs due to higher birth rates in April and May [4]. - Short-term price increases are anticipated due to seasonal factors and market sentiment, but the overall price increase potential remains limited [5]. - The market is likely to experience a demand lull post the Mid-Autumn and National Day holidays, which may suppress pig prices as supply recovers [5].
未来供应压力仍将缓慢增加 猪价上涨空间受抑或维持区间震荡
Qi Huo Ri Bao·2025-09-03 02:41