MENGNIU DAIRY(2319.HK)：SALES MISSED BUT CORE OPM EXPANSION STILL WELL ON TRACK IN 1H25;ANNOUNCED CFO CHANGE;CAUTIOUS ABOUT NT DEMAND RECOVERY

Core Viewpoint - Mengniu reported a 16.4% year-on-year (YoY) net profit decrease alongside a 6.9% YoY revenue drop in 1H25, which was below expectations. However, the core operating profit margin (OPM) expanded by 1.5 percentage points YoY, attributed to lower raw milk costs and strict expense control. For FY25, management has revised down revenue guidance to a mid-single-digit (MSD%) or high-single-digit (HSD%) YoY decline, with core OPM expected to remain flat YoY [1][2][4]. Financial Performance - In 1H25, Mengniu's total revenue was RMB41.6 billion, down 6.9% YoY, and net profit was RMB2,046 million, down 16.4% YoY, both missing expectations. The core OPM increased to 8.5%, exceeding expectations due to gross profit margin (GPM) expansion from lower raw milk costs and disciplined expense management. Cash flow improved significantly, with cash flow from operations (CFO) at RMB2.8 billion, up from RMB1.9 billion in 1H24, aided by better working capital management and a 40% YoY reduction in capital expenditures (capex) to RMB1.0 billion [2][3]. Product Category Performance - Liquid milk sales fell by 11% YoY in 1H25, indicating weak dairy consumption demand. However, the YoY sales decline narrowed in Q2 compared to Q1. Other product categories, such as ice cream, milk formula, and cheese, showed resilient growth with YoY increases of 15%, 2%, and 12%, respectively [3]. Management Changes - A change in the CFO position was announced, with Mr. Ping Zhang retiring and Mr. Xinwen Shen appointed as the new CFO effective September 1, 2025. Mr. Shen has extensive experience, having served in various roles within COFCO Corporation Group for around 30 years [3]. Future Guidance - Management anticipates a revenue decrease of MSD% or HSD% YoY for 2025, with core OPM expected to stabilize at over 8%, indicating a half-on-half (HoH) decrease. The long-term OPM expansion target remains intact at +30-50 basis points each year, supported by potential mix upgrades and efficiency gains. Mengniu plans to renew its share repurchase program, potentially valuing up to HK$1 billion over the next 12 months, alongside a steady dividend payout ratio of over 45% based on adjusted net profit [4].