欧盟外长放话：如果不赔偿乌克兰损失，俄罗斯别想拿回2100亿欧元

Core Viewpoint - The European financial system is increasingly becoming a political tool, with the EU's intention to use frozen Russian central bank assets to address Ukraine's fiscal needs highlighting strategic anxieties and policy dilemmas in the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict [1][3]. Group 1: Financial Implications - The EU has frozen €210 billion of Russian central bank assets since the onset of the conflict, with €183 billion of core assets managed by Euroclear in Brussels [3]. - The European Policy Research Center estimates that Ukraine's fiscal deficit will exceed €8 billion by 2026, making the frozen Russian assets a potential "ready-made ATM" for funding [3]. Group 2: Legal and Systemic Risks - The unilateral freezing of a sovereign nation's central bank reserves is considered a dangerous precedent in the international financial order, undermining the principle of private property [4][5]. - The EU's plan to use these assets lacks legal basis and could lead to significant international legal disputes if the war's outcome changes [5][9]. Group 3: Internal EU Divisions - There are notable divisions within the EU regarding the handling of these assets, with warnings from Belgian and Hungarian officials about the potential destabilization of the global financial system [11]. - The potential for capital flight and currency volatility could exceed the current fiscal crisis if emerging market countries withdraw from the European financial system [11]. Group 4: Strategic Gamble - The EU's decision to target frozen assets reflects a desperate financial situation and urgent funding needs for Ukraine, but it risks catastrophic consequences for the EU's financial credibility [11]. - The situation is likened to a modern "Trojan Horse," where the EU may sacrifice its long-term financial stability for short-term tactical gains in supporting Ukraine [11].