美国制造业崩盘式萎缩，关税风暴下“避险之王”刷新历史高点

Group 1: Gold Market Dynamics - Gold prices surged over 1% on September 2, reaching a historic high of $3539.88 per ounce, closing at $3533.40 per ounce, reflecting a 34.5% increase year-to-date, significantly outperforming other assets [1] - The rise in gold prices is attributed to the weak U.S. economy, trade policy uncertainties, and global geopolitical risks, with investors seeking safe-haven assets amid these challenges [1][4] - The demand for gold is further supported by central bank purchases and diversification away from the U.S. dollar, reinforcing its status as a reliable hedge against economic instability [6][10] Group 2: U.S. Manufacturing Sector - The U.S. manufacturing sector has been in decline for six consecutive months, with the August PMI slightly improving to 48.7 but still below the neutral level of 50, indicating ongoing contraction [3] - High tariff policies implemented by the Trump administration have led to increased costs for manufacturers, negatively impacting profit margins and employment in the sector [3][5] - Factory construction spending fell by 6.7% year-over-year in July, signaling a cooling investment sentiment within the manufacturing industry [3] Group 3: Economic Indicators and Market Reactions - The market anticipates a 90% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve on September 17, with potential discussions for a 50 basis point cut if upcoming non-farm payroll data is weak [7][11] - The uncertainty surrounding tariffs has led to significant declines in stock markets, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropping 0.55% and the S&P 500 down 0.69% at the start of September [5] - Rising U.S. debt levels, now at $37.18 trillion, and concerns over fiscal deficits are contributing to increased yields in the bond market, further driving investors towards gold [5][6] Group 4: Global Economic Context - Global factors, including inflation concerns in the Eurozone and political instability in Japan and the UK, are contributing to a complex risk environment that supports gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [10] - The interplay of stagnant economic growth and inflationary pressures, described as "stagflation," enhances gold's role as a hedge [10] - The upcoming release of U.S. economic data, including factory orders and job openings, will be critical in shaping market expectations and gold prices [11]