澳大利亚二季度GDP超预期增长1.8% 创2023年9月以来最快增速

Economic Growth - Australia's GDP growth in Q2 2023 was 1.8% year-on-year, exceeding the forecast of 1.6% and significantly up from 1.3% in the previous quarter [1] - The quarter-on-quarter growth rate was 0.6%, also surpassing market expectations of 0.5% [1] Key Drivers of Growth - Household consumption and government spending were the main drivers of growth, with government spending contributing 0.2 percentage points [1] - However, a decline in public investment by 0.2 percentage points partially offset this growth [1] - Mining exports continued to show strength, but net trade had a limited impact on overall economic growth [1] Monetary Policy - The Reserve Bank of Australia cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.6% in August and expressed cautious optimism [1] - The central bank noted that while global economic uncertainties remain, the clarity around U.S. tariff policies has reduced the likelihood of extreme risks [1] Domestic Demand and Inflation - There are signs of recovery in private demand, supported by rising real household incomes and improved financial conditions [1] - The RBA revised its 2024 economic growth forecast down from 2.1% to 1.7%, primarily due to weakened productivity growth expectations rather than trade disruptions [1] - The CPI for Q2 increased by 2.1% year-on-year, marking the lowest level since March 2021 and nearing the RBA's target range of 2%-3% [1] Consumer Confidence - The Westpac-Melbourne Institute consumer confidence index rose by 5.7% to 98.5 in August, reaching a three-year high [2] - Although still below the neutral level of 100, this indicates a trend of easing pessimism among consumers [2] - The macroeconomic forecast director at Westpac suggested that long-term low consumer sentiment may be approaching a turning point [2]