SCS(SH:601555) Xin Lang Cai Jing·2025-09-03 05:55Market Performance Review - The Nasdaq 100 index showed a "high-low" trend in August, with a cumulative increase of 0.85%. Early in the month, weak U.S. non-farm payroll and PMI data raised concerns about economic momentum, putting short-term pressure on the index. Later, dovish signals from Powell at the Jackson Hole meeting helped stabilize and rebound the index. The technology sector exhibited mixed performance, leading to a volatile close for the index [1] - As of August 29, 2025, the Nasdaq 100 index's PE-TTM was 34.6 times, positioned at the 83.6% historical percentile since 2011, indicating relatively high historical valuation and a strong dependence on interest rate environment and earnings realization [1] - The risk level of the Nasdaq 100 index decreased to 91.54 as of August 29, 2025, still in a high range, reflecting overheated market sentiment. The short-term volatility and risk of fluctuations should not be overlooked, despite a good medium-term upward trend [1] Event-Driven Insights - On the macro level, July's U.S. non-farm data fell short of expectations, and manufacturing PMI was below the growth line, raising recession and rate cut concerns, leading to valuation adjustments. Following this, CPI remained flat while PPI rebounded, creating a mixed inflation outlook that suppressed index gains. August PMI improved, gradually stabilizing market sentiment. Overall, macro data fluctuated between "growth concerns—inflation disturbances—expectation recovery" [2] - On the policy front, the FOMC maintained interest rates at the end of July while releasing hawkish signals, which pressured growth stocks. In mid-August, Trump proposed semiconductor tariffs, impacting chip chain sentiment. By the end of the month, Powell hinted at a potential rate cut in September, boosting liquidity expectations and helping the index recover [2] - In the industry context, August's tech earnings season became a focal point. Microsoft Azure and Meta's advertising business showed robust growth, supporting valuation recovery. However, Apple and Amazon's earnings were lackluster, and Nvidia's data center and AI business continued to lead, although high pre-earnings expectations led to post-earnings stock price volatility [2] Index Outlook - Key upcoming events include the September Federal Reserve meeting and employment and inflation data, which will be pivotal. If non-farm and PCE inflation data remain stable, it will strengthen rate cut expectations, benefiting high-valuation tech stocks. Conversely, if data exceeds expectations, high dollar rates may suppress Nasdaq performance. Additionally, developments in Trump's tariff policy will directly impact semiconductor and consumer electronics sector volatility [3] - The outlook for the Nasdaq index in September suggests it will remain in a volatile pattern due to the tug-of-war between macro environment and policy expectations. While liquidity easing expectations and AI industry performance support a medium-term upward trend, the market sentiment may weaken in the short term due to Nvidia's late-August decline. The uncertainty surrounding rate cut paths and trade policies may increase volatility, necessitating caution despite high-level operations [3] - The GF Nasdaq 100 ETF closely tracks the Nasdaq 100 index, aiming to minimize tracking deviation and error. As of August 29, 2025, the fund's total market value reached 27.718 billion, with a trading volume of 870 million on that day [3]