国泰海通:25H1家电龙头品牌经营稳健 关税扰动效应递减
Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-09-03 06:00

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that the home appliance industry is rated as "overweight" with stable operations from leading brands in Q2, and the impact of tariffs is expected to diminish over time, with performance exceeding expectations mainly in small appliances and cleaning devices [1] - The report suggests four main investment themes: 1) overseas expansion as a core driver, focusing on smart home key targets; 2) stable performance with upward elasticity; 3) strong operations of leading companies combined with high dividends, offering cost-effective investment options; 4) home appliance companies diversifying into new business lines [1] - The domestic subsidy effect continues, but its marginal impact is decreasing; Q2 revenue and profit growth for the home appliance sector is projected at +5.6% and +3.1% year-on-year, respectively, with a slight deceleration compared to Q1 [1] Group 2 - In Q2 2025, the white goods sector's revenue growth is +5.8% and profit growth is +6.0%, with leading brands outperforming second and third-tier brands, indicating an increase in industry concentration [1] - The cleaning appliance sector shows significant revenue growth of +31.5% for brand manufacturers, while OEMs face a decline of -23.8%; leading companies like Roborock and Ecovacs perform well due to sustained high industry demand and reduced competition [1] - The black goods sector experiences revenue growth of +1.4% but profit declines by -16.5%, with brand companies seeing a slowdown in volume growth but continuing to increase average prices [1] Group 3 - The overall overseas revenue share of the home appliance sector reached 39.5% in H1 2025, an increase of 1.4 percentage points year-on-year, indicating a continued upward trend in international expansion [2] - Several companies are actively pursuing new business areas, such as Bull's focus on data centers and solar lighting, Yitian Intelligent's engagement in liquid cooling and computing power, and Rongtai Health's emphasis on vehicle-mounted massage and massage robots [2] - Compared to profit forecasts, Q2 performance exceeded expectations mainly in small appliances and cleaning devices, with six companies reporting revenue above expectations and four companies exceeding profit expectations [3]