Core Viewpoint - Beike (BEKE.US/02423.HK) has reported steady performance in its latest financial results, despite underperforming compared to the broader market in both Hong Kong and the US this year [1][2] Group 1: Financial Performance Highlights - Total Gross Transaction Value (GTV) reached 1.72 trillion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 17.3%, with existing home GTV growing by 13.7% and new home GTV by 26.0%, significantly above industry averages [6] - Net revenue for the first half of the year was 49.3 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 24.1%, indicating improved monetization capabilities [7] - Non-real estate transaction services are increasingly contributing to revenue, with home decoration and rental services generating 7.5 billion yuan and 10.7 billion yuan respectively, marking year-on-year increases of 16.5% and 85.2% [8] Group 2: Business Growth and Network Expansion - The number of Beike stores reached 60,500, and the number of agents increased to 558,000, enhancing the platform's ecosystem and competitiveness [10] - The share buyback program has been robust, with 394 million USD in American Depositary Shares repurchased in the first half of the year, and a total of 2.02 billion USD since the program's initiation, representing 10.3% of the total shares before the buyback [11] Group 3: Market Expectations and Valuation Discrepancies - The market continues to value Beike primarily as a "real estate transaction platform," overlooking its transformation into a comprehensive "residential service ecosystem," which has significant value [14] - Short-term fluctuations in profitability have overshadowed long-term structural improvements, with healthy operating cash flow indicating strong core business performance [16][17] - The market has underestimated the efficiency gains from Beike's investments in AI and technology, which are crucial for enhancing service delivery and operational efficiency [18] Group 4: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The current bull market in Hong Kong and A-shares has led to increased recognition of Beike's growth potential, with several institutions issuing buy ratings and target prices indicating substantial upside [4][20] - Recent capital inflows into Beike's stock suggest a positive market sentiment, with a notable increase in holdings from Hong Kong Stock Connect [23]
从Q2业绩，看贝壳(BEKE.US/02423.HK)低估背后的三重预期差