供需的矛盾尚未解决 纸浆盘面有止跌企稳的迹象

News Summary Core Viewpoint - The pulp market is experiencing a downward adjustment in prices, with a notable decline in inventory levels in China, while the demand remains weak, leading to a cautious outlook for the industry. Group 1: Market Pricing and Inventory - Arauco's August price adjustment for Asian markets is set at $720 per ton, unchanged from the previous month [1] - As of August 28, 2025, the inventory of pulp at major Chinese ports is 2.084 million tons, a decrease of 48,000 tons or 2.3% from the previous period, indicating a trend of inventory reduction [1] - On September 2, the Shanghai Futures Exchange reported a decrease of 60 tons in pulp warehouse receipts to 229,027 tons, while factory warehouse receipts remained stable at 18,240 tons [1] Group 2: Industry Profitability and Demand - In July, the profit of the paper and paper products industry decreased by 21.9% year-on-year, with the decline slightly widening [2] - The supply remains ample, and there is an expectation for demand to pick up during the peak season, although pulp prices are currently experiencing low-level fluctuations [2] Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The price of hardwood pulp has strengthened, while the price spread between softwood and hardwood pulp continues to narrow [3] - Despite positive factors such as expectations of interest rate cuts and rising hardwood pulp prices abroad, the weak fundamentals are prevailing due to high port inventories and lackluster downstream demand [3] - Global pulp shipment volumes are at historical highs, with shipments to Western Europe and North America at lower levels compared to the same period last year, while shipments to China are significantly higher than last year [3] - The production of major paper types shows that while the output of white cardboard and coated paper is on par with last year, the production of household paper is higher, and the output of newsprint is slightly above last year's levels [3] - Overall, the consumption of paper types, excluding household paper, is below last year's levels, indicating unresolved supply-demand contradictions [3]