Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Jin Tou Wang·2025-09-03 06:19Market Review - On Tuesday evening, the closing price of the Shanghai zinc futures 2511 contract was 22,345 CNY/ton, an increase of 0.43% [1] Fundamental Summary - As of September 2, the zinc futures warehouse receipts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange totaled 38,955 tons, an increase of 998 tons compared to the previous trading day [2] - From September 1, many galvanized sheet factories in Hebei have suspended operations, with no set date for resumption. Additionally, some regions are facing transportation restrictions, leading to maintenance or shutdowns of galvanized sheet factories [2] - As of September 2, LME zinc inventory has continued to decline to 55,600 tons, the lowest level since May 2023 [3] Institutional Perspectives - Zhonghui Futures noted that macroeconomic and sector sentiment is positive, with LME zinc strengthening and Shanghai zinc slightly rising. However, there is upward pressure from accumulated domestic zinc inventory and a policy vacuum, limiting upward space. The support level of 20,000 CNY has been tested multiple times, suggesting short-term consolidation for Shanghai zinc with a lack of clear directional movement. It is recommended to observe and wait for more macro data guidance. In the medium to long term, the outlook is for increased supply and decreased demand for zinc, maintaining a view of selling on rebounds. The focus for Shanghai zinc is on the range of 22,000 to 22,600 CNY, while for LME zinc, it is 2,700 to 2,900 USD/ton [4] - Ruida Futures highlighted that in the macro aspect, the US ISM manufacturing PMI has contracted for six consecutive months, although new orders have improved and the price index has declined. On the fundamental side, both domestic and international zinc ore imports have increased, and processing fees for zinc ore continue to rise. Coupled with a significant increase in sulfuric acid prices, smelter profits are recovering, leading to increased production enthusiasm. New capacities are being released, and previously maintained capacities are resuming, accelerating supply growth. Currently, import losses are expanding, leading to a decrease in imported zinc inflow. On the demand side, downstream is at the end of the off-season, with manageable inventory pressure for galvanized sheets and a steady recovery trend in processing enterprise operating rates. Although zinc prices have dropped to low levels, downstream procurement remains demand-driven, resulting in a subdued transaction atmosphere. Domestic social inventory is increasing, while current spot premiums are stabilizing at low levels. Conversely, overseas LME inventory has decreased significantly, and spot premiums have risen, providing support for zinc prices. Technically, a decrease in positions and a price rebound indicate a weakening bearish atmosphere, with a focus on the support level of 22,200 CNY. The recommendation is to observe the market or to buy on dips with light positions [4]