Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-09-03 07:12Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs has released a report indicating that Alibaba's cloud business and capital expenditures for the first fiscal quarter ending June 30 exceeded expectations, maintaining a positive outlook driven by AI growth and reiterating a "buy" rating [1] Financial Performance - Goldman Sachs has adjusted Alibaba's adjusted net profit forecasts for the fiscal years 2026 and 2027 down by 9% and 4% respectively, while also lowering the group's EBITA forecasts by 11% and 1%. However, forecasts for 2028's profit and EBITA have been increased by 2% [1] - The target prices for Alibaba's shares have been raised to HKD 158 for the Hong Kong market and USD 163 for the US market [1] Business Outlook - The report highlights improved visibility in Alibaba's operations, with management indicating that the unit economics for food delivery and instant retail are expected to significantly improve in the coming months, suggesting that the second fiscal quarter will likely be the peak of losses for these segments [1] - Confidence remains in the growth of customer management revenue for the remaining quarters of fiscal year 2026, which is expected to alleviate market concerns regarding substantial investments in instant retail [1] Loss Projections - Goldman Sachs has revised its loss forecast for Alibaba's instant retail in the second fiscal quarter from RMB 20 billion to RMB 31 billion, compared to a loss of RMB 11 billion in the first fiscal quarter. It is anticipated that losses per order will be halved in the third fiscal quarter as subsidies normalize and delivery efficiency improves [1] Market Share Expectations - The firm expects Alibaba's market share in food delivery and instant retail to stabilize at 40%, with competitors Meituan and JD.com expected to capture the remaining 50% and 10% of the market share respectively [1]