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8月油价震荡下跌，美国降息预期升温有望推升油价
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-09-03 07:17

Core Insights - In August 2025, the average price of Brent crude oil futures was $67.3 per barrel, a decrease of $2.1 per barrel month-on-month, while WTI crude oil futures averaged $64.0 per barrel, down $3.1 per barrel month-on-month [1] - Oil prices initially rose significantly at the end of July but began to decline in early August as geopolitical tensions eased [1] - Mid-August saw support for oil prices due to concerns over international relations despite no agreements reached in US-Russia talks [1] - Late August was marked by a dovish statement from the Federal Reserve Chairman, which raised expectations for a rate cut in September, positively impacting oil demand outlook [1] Supply Side Analysis - OPEC+ announced an acceleration of production increase by 547,000 barrels per day for September [1] - The 38th OPEC+ ministerial meeting in December 2024 decided to extend collective production cuts of 2 million barrels per day and voluntary cuts of 1.66 million barrels per day until the end of 2026 [1] - OPEC+ has significantly increased production in May, June, and July, with increases of 411,000 barrels per day, three times the original plan, and announced further increases for August and September [1] Demand Side Analysis - Major international energy agencies project an increase in global crude oil demand by 680,000 to 1.29 million barrels per day in 2025, and by 700,000 to 1.38 million barrels per day in 2026 [2] - China's refining industry faces challenges due to aging capacity and potential impacts on independent refineries, leading to an expected optimization of supply-side dynamics [2] - Despite uncertainties in the global environment, the expected price range for Brent crude oil in 2025 is projected to be between $65 and $75 per barrel, while WTI is expected to be between $60 and $70 per barrel [2] Related Companies - Key recommendations include China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec), Satellite Chemical, and CNOOC Development [3]