专访斯蒂芬·罗奇：美联储关注风险转变，美股市场或出现修正

Group 1 - The U.S. stock market failed to maintain its upward trend, with the S&P 500 index experiencing a sell-off at the end of August, marking the end of three consecutive weeks of gains [1] - The focus has shifted to the upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll data for August, which is crucial for assessing economic health and influencing Federal Reserve interest rate decisions [1] - Concerns have been raised about the potential for a new market bubble in the context of rising valuations among tech giants driven by AI investments [1][5] Group 2 - Stephen Roach, a senior researcher at Yale and former chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia, believes the Federal Reserve will not rush to adjust policies due to political pressure, but may adopt a more accommodative stance due to labor market weaknesses and tariff impacts [2][3] - The U.S. economy is showing signs of slowing down, with consumer spending growth at only half the average level of recent years, raising concerns about further declines in labor market and GDP [4] - The concentration of market value among the "seven giants" in the AI sector has reached approximately 35% of the S&P 500, indicating a risk level six times higher than during the peak of the 2000 internet bubble [5] Group 3 - The potential for a significant market correction in the next six months is anticipated due to the overvaluation of AI-related stocks and weak consumer demand [6][5] - If the stock market adjusts or the economy faces a major recession, the outlook for the U.S. dollar and government bonds may be negatively impacted, with a possibility of aggressive rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [7] - The independence of the Federal Reserve is under threat due to political pressures, particularly from President Trump, who has expressed intentions to dismiss a Federal Reserve governor [8][9]