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外卖大战时代的新茶饮,原来是生死内功局
3 6 Ke·2025-09-03 07:20

Core Viewpoint - The recent delivery subsidy war has led to a temporary boost in sales for tea beverage stocks, particularly milk tea, but raises questions about the sustainability of this growth once subsidies are withdrawn [1][5][11]. Group 1: Financial Performance of Listed Tea Beverage Companies - Six listed tea beverage companies have shown a divergence in their financial performance for the first half of 2025, with significant differences in revenue growth and profitability [2]. - Mixue Group reported a revenue of 14.87 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 39.3%, and a net profit of 2.72 billion yuan, up 44.1% [2]. - Gu Ming achieved a net profit of approximately 1.625 billion yuan, a staggering increase of 121.5%, with revenue of 5.663 billion yuan, up 41.2% [3]. - Other companies like Hu Shang A Yi and Cha Bai Dao showed modest growth, while Ba Wang Cha Ji experienced a decline in net profit despite revenue growth [4]. - Nai Xue's Tea reported a revenue of 2.178 billion yuan, a decline of 14.4%, and a net loss of 118 million yuan, indicating significant challenges in maintaining market position [4]. Group 2: Impact of Delivery Subsidy War - The delivery subsidy war has unexpectedly disrupted the tea beverage industry, with analysts suggesting that subsidy resources will increasingly concentrate on leading brands [5][7]. - High order volumes are primarily manageable by top tea beverage brands, which possess the necessary supply chain capabilities to meet increased demand [5][8]. - The competition has led to a "Matthew Effect," where companies with strong supply chains benefit the most, while smaller brands struggle to survive [8][11]. - Gu Ming reported a peak weekly delivery order volume of over 8 million, a threefold increase compared to normal levels, highlighting the impact of the subsidy war on operational capacity [8]. Group 3: Future Industry Trends - As subsidies are expected to diminish, the demand stimulated by these incentives may also decline, leading to a potential market shakeout [11][12]. - Companies are encouraged to focus on strengthening their supply chains and diversifying product offerings to remain competitive in a challenging market environment [12][13]. - The introduction of coffee products by brands like Gu Ming and Mixue indicates a strategic shift towards cross-category competition, which may become a key growth area [9][12].