夏季平静期宣告结束！关税与美联储忧虑重燃，华尔街迎波动9月

Market Overview - The summer calm on Wall Street ended after Labor Day, with investors preparing for increased volatility as September is historically the worst month for U.S. stock markets [1] - Concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve and uncertainties surrounding President Trump's tariffs have become focal points, impacting both stock and bond markets [1][2] - Long-standing worries about the bubble-like valuations of stocks and corporate bonds have intensified amid signs of an economic slowdown in the U.S. this summer [1] Bond Market Dynamics - The CBOE Volatility Index reached its highest level in over four weeks, while the S&P 500 index fell by 0.7% [2] - A global sell-off in bonds led to a significant rise in long-term U.S. Treasury yields, with the 10-year Treasury yield increasing nearly 5 basis points to 4.269% and the 30-year yield reaching its highest level since mid-July [2] - Rising Treasury yields may negatively affect the stock market as bond returns become more attractive, with a 10-year yield around 4.5% seen as a threshold for weakening stock demand [2] Economic and Seasonal Factors - September's seasonal weakness may be partly due to investors cleaning up their portfolios after summer vacations and making adjustments before year-end [4] - Historically, September has been the worst month for the S&P 500, averaging a decline of 0.8% over the past 35 years, with 18 out of those 35 months experiencing declines [4] - The recent surge in credit market debt issuance has exacerbated government debt sell-offs as investors reallocate funds to corporate bonds [4] Corporate Bond Market Insights - The corporate bond spread, which is the premium high-rated companies pay over U.S. Treasury yields, reached a historical low of 75 basis points last month [5] - Given the low volatility and tight spread levels, an increase in market volatility seems more likely [5] - The upcoming non-farm payroll data for August is crucial for investors assessing the Federal Reserve's potential rate cuts, although persistent inflation pressures may limit aggressive easing [5] Alternative Assets and Market Sentiment - Investors are seeking alternative assets to protect portfolios amid market turbulence, with gold prices rising close to historical highs of $3540 per ounce [5] - Both gold and Bitcoin have seen increases this year, suggesting a trend where both assets provide alternatives to fiat currency and a hedge against dollar depreciation [5]