巴克莱：美股不便宜，但科技股不贵

Core Insights - Despite the high valuation of the S&P 500 at 22-22.5 times earnings, it is not considered overvalued, particularly in the technology sector, which still has room for growth [1][5] - The second quarter earnings season showed strong performance, with S&P 500 earnings per share (EPS) growing by 10.6% and sales increasing by 6.1%, although this growth is heavily concentrated in a few sectors, mainly large tech and financials [3][4] Valuation Analysis - Large tech stocks are trading at approximately 29 times forward earnings, which is still below the expected level at the end of 2024 and lower than their historical premium over the S&P 500 [2][5] - In contrast, industrial stocks are considered overvalued, trading at 25 times earnings, driven by aerospace and defense and electrical equipment sectors [5] Earnings Performance - The second quarter earnings season exceeded expectations, with the breadth and depth of earnings surprises being the highest in four years [3] - Large tech stocks saw EPS growth of 27.6%, while other tech stocks grew by 19.7%, significantly above their long-term average of 8.7% [4] Sector Performance - The communication services sector showed remarkable growth of 24.8%, while consumer, materials, and utility sectors lagged behind, with earnings growth falling short of their long-term growth rates [4] - The financial and communication services sectors demonstrated the most significant improvement in profit margins, being the only two sectors to achieve positive operating leverage [4] Market Sentiment and Concerns - Concerns regarding tariffs have eased, with discussions about tariffs among executives decreasing from 90% to 76% in earnings calls, indicating a shift towards a more positive outlook on inventory levels [10] - Approximately 55% of executives discussed artificial intelligence (AI) topics in earnings calls, reflecting a growing trend, with a focus on efficiency improvements rather than cost [10]