BBMarkets蓝莓外汇：黄金再度爆发，背后原因是什么？

Group 1 - Gold prices have gained significant attention, with spot gold surpassing $3,500 per ounce, reaching a high of $3,539.88, and closing at $3,533.40, reflecting an increase of over 1% [1] - Year-to-date, gold has risen by 34.5%, outperforming most other assets [1] - The recent rise in gold prices is attributed to poor U.S. economic performance, trade tensions, and global risk factors [1] Group 2 - The U.S. manufacturing sector has contracted for six consecutive months, with the ISM manufacturing PMI rising from 48.0 to 48.7 in August, still below the neutral level of 50, indicating ongoing contraction [2] - Manufacturing accounts for approximately 10.2% of the U.S. economy, and its decline is impacting employment, investment, and consumption [2] - High tariff policies are identified as a major factor, with average tariff levels reaching a century high, increasing costs for imported components and disrupting production plans for various sectors [2] Group 3 - The Federal Reserve's policy is expected to significantly influence gold prices, with a potential 25 basis point rate cut anticipated on September 17, totaling around 57 basis points for the year [4] - Non-farm payroll data will be a critical reference point, as weak data could elevate rate cut expectations [4] - Manufacturing data shows new orders rising to 51.4, but the production index has dropped to 47.8, indicating ongoing employment pressures and supply chain bottlenecks [4] Group 4 - The gold market is entering a seasonally active period, with SPDR Gold Trust holdings rising to 977.68 tons, the highest since August 2022, and silver prices reaching a 14-year high [6] - Despite a slightly stronger dollar, the overall trend remains weak, supporting gold prices [6] - Global factors, including European inflation nearing central bank targets, political instability in Japan, and fiscal issues in the UK, alongside U.S. economic slowdown and inflation pressures, are driving investors towards gold as a safe-haven asset [6]