特朗普捅破天，华尔街敢怒不敢言？美国经济进入拐点，或将暴雷

Economic Indicators - The U.S. inflation rate rebounded to 4.2% in July, marking an 18-month high [1] - Consumer confidence index has declined for four consecutive months, with retail sales growth dropping to 1.6%, the lowest in nearly four years [3] - The U.S. debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to exceed 110% in the next three years, significantly above historical averages [3] Fiscal Policy and Debt Concerns - Analysts believe that short-term fiscal stimulus may create a temporary illusion of economic growth, but the growing debt burden will ultimately hinder overall economic vitality [5] - The U.S. Federal Reserve faces a difficult choice between raising interest rates to curb inflation or maintaining low rates to alleviate debt pressure, both options carry significant risks [5] - Moody's downgraded the outlook for U.S. long-term credit ratings from "stable" to "negative," citing increased risks of debt default due to fiscal policy chaos and escalating social tensions [13] Market Sentiment and Investment Climate - Major foreign creditors, including Japan and China, have been quietly reducing their holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds, indicating a decline in confidence in U.S. assets [7] - The U.S. government's direct acquisition of a 10% stake in Intel has raised concerns among Wall Street analysts about the implications of "state capitalism" on market mechanisms and investor confidence [7] - Foreign direct investment (FDI) in the U.S. decreased by 22% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, reflecting a decline in foreign companies' confidence in the U.S. market [15] Social and Political Dynamics - The wealth gap in the U.S. has continued to widen, with the top 1% holding an increasing share of assets, while middle-class incomes have seen negative growth for two consecutive years [9] - The political landscape is becoming more extreme, with significant divisions between the two parties making effective fiscal reform unlikely in the short term [18] - The forced removal of a Federal Reserve board member has raised concerns about the independence of the Fed and the long-term credibility of the U.S. dollar [11] Future Outlook - Bridgewater Associates warns of a potential economic "explosion" within three years if current policies remain unchanged, suggesting a significant restructuring of the financial market's trust system [16] - The IMF has recommended that the U.S. "quickly rebuild fiscal discipline," but the likelihood of achieving effective reforms is considered low due to increasing political polarization [18]