富格林：黑幕欺诈杜渐防微 8月非农曝光降息悬念

Group 1: Gold Market Insights - Gold prices surged over 1% on September 2, breaking the historical high of $3,500 per ounce, driven by investor demand for safe-haven assets amid economic uncertainty [1][2] - Year-to-date, gold has seen a cumulative increase of 34.5%, significantly outperforming other asset classes [1][2] - The recent rise in gold prices is attributed to heightened expectations of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, with a 90% probability of this occurring according to CME FedWatch [2][3] Group 2: U.S. Manufacturing Sector - The U.S. manufacturing sector has been in contraction for six consecutive months, with the PMI rising slightly from 48.0 to 48.7 in August, still below the neutral 50 mark [2] - Manufacturing accounts for approximately 10.2% of the U.S. economy, and its weakness is impacting employment, investment, and consumption [2] - Factory construction spending fell by 6.7% year-on-year in July, indicating a cooling investment sentiment in the manufacturing sector [2] Group 3: Federal Reserve and Economic Policy - Concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve have increased following President Trump's dismissal of a Fed board member, contributing to a rise in safe-haven buying [3] - The market is closely monitoring upcoming economic data releases, including non-farm payrolls and inflation reports, which could influence Fed policy and gold prices [5] - The uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade policies and tariffs is expected to continue affecting investor sentiment and gold demand [3][5] Group 4: Oil Market Dynamics - International oil prices have been supported by U.S. sanctions on Iranian oil exports and expectations that OPEC+ will not adjust production levels in the near term [6][8] - WTI crude oil closed at $65.37 per barrel, while Brent crude settled at $69 per barrel, reflecting a rise due to sanctions and declining U.S. oil inventories [6][8] - The market is cautious about the demand outlook due to weak economic data, which could limit further price increases [6][8]