民调暴跌、债汇双杀、510亿英镑窟窿待补！英国已经别无选择？

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming annual budget announcement by UK Chancellor Reeves on November 26 is critical for the struggling Labour government, as it faces a significant fiscal challenge requiring potential tax increases or spending cuts of up to £51 billion ($68 billion) to address a growing public finance deficit [2][3]. Group 1: Fiscal Challenges - Economists estimate that Reeves may need to implement tax increases or spending cuts of up to £51 billion ($68 billion) to fill the public finance "black hole" and restore a fiscal buffer that is currently less than £10 billion [2]. - Policy reversals, such as the retreat on winter fuel payments for pensioners and the cancellation of cuts to disability benefits, have exacerbated the fiscal gap that Reeves must address [2]. - The rising borrowing costs, driven by persistent inflation and concerns over the UK's substantial debt pile, complicate the budget calculations for Reeves [2][3]. Group 2: Market Reactions - The combination of rising government bond yields and currency depreciation is typically seen as a warning sign of weak investor confidence [3]. - Despite the challenges, the UK Treasury's recent auction of 10-year bonds received 10 times the oversubscription, indicating strong market demand for UK government debt, although yields are at their highest level since 2008 [4]. - The global trend of rising long-term bond yields is not unique to the UK, as similar situations are observed in other markets, including France and Japan [4]. Group 3: Economic Outlook - The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) is expected to downgrade productivity estimates, which may lead to a downward revision of the UK's growth forecasts, further complicating the budget process for Reeves [3]. - HSBC's chief European economist noted that the situation is challenging, suggesting that Reeves will likely present a budget that adheres to existing rules, as this is her only viable option [3]. - Concerns about the credibility of economic management in the US, particularly due to President Trump's attacks on key institutions, may also impact global investor sentiment, adding pressure to Reeves' fiscal strategy [5].