百利好晚盘分析：避险情绪升温 黄金大幅走高

Gold Sector - The US ISM Manufacturing PMI for August recorded at 48.7, slightly above the previous value of 48 but below market expectations of 49, indicating a contraction in the manufacturing sector for six consecutive months due to tariff policies [1] - Recent risk aversion has led to a rise in bond yields, with the UK 30-year bond yield reaching its highest level since 1998, and similar trends observed in France and Germany, suggesting increased debt levels in the Eurozone [1] - Analysts suggest that weak economic data from the US indicates a potential slowdown in economic growth, while rising risk aversion supports a strong performance in gold prices [1] Oil Sector - With the implementation of US tariff policies, the volatility in oil prices is expected to return to fundamentals, with a likelihood of wide fluctuations due to a lack of significant supply-demand imbalances [2] - Market focus is on the Federal Reserve's expected rate cuts in September and December, which may support oil prices due to a weaker dollar [2] - Oil supply risks are heightened as producing countries fulfill their production commitments, coinciding with the end of the US demand season, potentially putting downward pressure on oil prices [2] Dollar Index - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell indicated that the balance of risks may require adjustments to monetary policy, making a rate cut in September almost certain [3] - Upcoming non-farm payroll and CPI data releases will influence expectations for future rate cuts, potentially slowing the dollar's decline [3] - The dollar index has been in a low-range adjustment since early August, with a possibility of continued fluctuations in the short term [3] Copper Sector - Recent trading days have shown a strong upward trend in copper prices, breaking previous highs, indicating a robust market performance [6] - The 20-day moving average has flattened and begun to rise, suggesting a potential upward shift in price levels [6] - The MACD indicator shows volume returning above the zero line, indicating that the upward trend in copper prices may continue [6]