KVB官网：美元强势限制近期创纪录高位的涨势，黄金多头转趋谨慎

Core Viewpoint - Gold (XAU/USD) continues to consolidate near historical highs, influenced by expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts and ongoing trade uncertainties [1][2][7] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The dollar has strengthened, leading to a temporary pause for gold bulls, with traders anticipating a 90% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve at the upcoming meeting [2] - President Trump is pressuring the Federal Reserve for rate cuts, and his actions have raised concerns about the central bank's independence [2] - Rising fiscal deficits, persistent inflation, and declining central bank credibility are pushing global bond yields higher, which has affected the performance of currencies like the pound and yen [2] Group 2: Economic Data and Expectations - Traders are looking forward to the release of the JOLTS job openings data and the ADP private sector employment report, with a particular focus on the upcoming non-farm payroll report for further insights into the gold/dollar dynamics [3] Group 3: Technical Analysis - Gold appears poised for further gains, with a potential breakout from the trading range, although the relative strength index (RSI) indicates overbought conditions [5][6] - Key support levels for gold are identified at $3,500 and $3,440, while resistance is seen around $3,546-$3,547, with a target of $3,600 for potential upward movement [6]