STARTRADER：JOLTs与非农接踵，欧元兑美元中期趋势如何判断？

Group 1: Market Overview - The resurgence of risk aversion in global markets has supported the US dollar, leading to a significant pullback in the EUR/USD pair, which fell to the 1.1600 area, marking a four-day low [1][7] - The EUR/USD is expected to remain within the range of 1.1400-1.1800, with a clear catalyst needed for a breakout, such as new signals from the Federal Reserve or a shift in trade dynamics [6][11] Group 2: Technical Analysis - The EUR/USD maintains an upward momentum but is still fluctuating within a range, with resistance levels at the August high of 1.1742 and potential targets at 1.1788 and 1.1830 [3][4] - The mid-term support for EUR/USD is identified at the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) of 1.1517, above the August low of 1.1391 and the weekly low of 1.1210 [4] Group 3: Economic Indicators - The Producer Price Index (PPI) for the Eurozone showed a year-on-year increase of 0.2% and a month-on-month increase of 0.4%, indicating slight inflationary pressures [7] - The upcoming JOLTs Job Openings data is anticipated to draw market attention towards the US labor market [1][12] Group 4: Central Bank Insights - The Federal Reserve has maintained interest rates, with Chairman Jerome Powell warning of risks in the labor market while noting that inflation has not yet returned to target levels, suggesting a potential rate cut as early as September [11] - The European Central Bank (ECB) has indicated a more cautious stance, with President Christine Lagarde stating that the Eurozone's economic growth is "robust" and suggesting no immediate plans for policy easing [13] Group 5: Political and Trade Developments - The trade tensions have eased with the US and China agreeing to extend the trade truce for 90 days, although tariffs remain unchanged, with 30% tariffs on US imports from China and 10% on US exports to China [9] - Political risks in Europe are rising, particularly with the upcoming confidence vote for French Prime Minister François Bayrou regarding his budget plan, which could impact the stability of his minority government [10]