Vatee外汇：美元在ISM制造业PMI数据公布前保持涨幅，澳元走弱

Core Viewpoint - The Australian dollar (AUD) has experienced a slight decline against the US dollar (USD) after five consecutive days of increase, primarily due to persistent inflation pressures in the US, which have heightened uncertainty regarding potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][5]. Group 1: Technical Analysis - The AUD/USD is currently trading within the range of 0.6400 to 0.6600, with resistance levels at 0.6568 (August 14) and 0.6625 (July 24) [3]. - A breakout above this range could lead to a target of 0.6687 (November 7, 2024 high), while the psychological level of 0.7000 remains a distant target [3]. - Support is found at 0.6414 (August 21), and a drop below this level could see the pair fall to the 200-day moving average at 0.6385, slightly above the June low of 0.6372 [3]. Group 2: Fundamental Overview - The AUD/USD has retraced some recent gains, falling to the 0.6480 area, marking a multi-day low near its 100-day moving average [5]. - Australia's inflation remains high, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising from 1.9% in June to 2.8% in July, contributing to ongoing inflation concerns and a cautious stance from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) [7]. - Economic indicators show resilience, with the manufacturing PMI at 53.0 and retail sales increasing by 1.2% in June, alongside a trade surplus of AUD 5.365 billion [8]. Group 3: Central Bank Policies - The RBA recently cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.60% and lowered growth forecasts for 2025, indicating that future policy decisions will be data-dependent [10]. - Market expectations suggest another 25 basis point cut by November 5, with the potential for accelerated easing if the labor market weakens [10]. Group 4: Market Sentiment - Speculators have significantly increased short positions on the AUD, with net speculative short positions rising to approximately 100,600 contracts as of August 26, the highest level since April 2024 [13].