风暴再起，全球国债抛售潮，发生了什么？

Group 1 - A global government bond sell-off is occurring, pushing the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield towards the psychological 5% mark [1][9] - The sell-off has affected bond markets across the Atlantic, with yields rising in the U.S., U.K., Italy, and France, reaching new highs since the financial crisis [1][3] - The U.S. 30-year Treasury yield has risen to 5%, and the 10-year yield has climbed to 4.291%, leading to a 0.7% drop in the S&P 500 index, marking its worst single-day performance since August 1 [1] Group 2 - The U.K. 30-year Treasury yield has reached 5.72%, the highest since 1998, while Germany and France's yields have also hit their highest levels since 2011 and 2009, at 3.41% and 4.51% respectively [3] - Japan's 30-year Treasury yield has surged to 3.28%, the highest on record, with the 20-year yield also reaching 2.69%, a new high since 1999 [6] Group 3 - The sell-off is driven by a massive supply of corporate bonds, concerns over government fiscal conditions, and seasonal liquidity tightening [9][10] - September is traditionally unfavorable for long bond holders, with Wall Street predicting a corporate bond issuance of $150 billion to $180 billion this month, potentially exceeding last year's $172.5 billion [9][10] Group 4 - The global sell-off reflects deep concerns about the fiscal health of developed economies, exacerbated by pandemic-related spending [11] - There is a shift in market sentiment, with investors needing reassurance from governments to regain confidence in their bonds [11] Group 5 - Technical liquidity factors and historical trends also contribute to the current market turmoil, with September historically being a poor month for long-duration bonds [12][13] - Predictions indicate a significant liquidity drain in the U.S. market, potentially withdrawing nearly $200 billion from the banking system on September 15 due to various fiscal factors [13] Group 6 - Market focus is shifting to the upcoming U.S. employment report, which will influence the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions [14] - Strong employment data could heighten concerns over prolonged high rates, while weak data may reinforce expectations for rate cuts, impacting the bond market's recovery [14]