牛市下半场，关键驱动力或已浮现

Group 1 - The A-share market experienced a significant rebound on August 28, with all three major indices rising after initially dipping below 3,800 points, indicating a potential bullish trend [2] - The offshore and onshore RMB/USD exchange rates both surpassed the 7.13 mark, reaching a new high for the year, suggesting a renewed correlation between currency strength and stock market performance [2][3] - The People's Bank of China set the RMB/USD central parity rate at 7.103 on August 29, marking the fifth consecutive increase and reflecting a proactive approach to stabilize the currency [2] Group 2 - The recent appreciation of the RMB is attributed to both external and internal factors, including expectations of a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve and proactive domestic policies [2][3] - Historical data shows a significant correlation between RMB exchange rates and stock market performance, with a stronger RMB potentially boosting foreign investment confidence and improving asset valuations in China [3][4] - The trend of foreign capital increasing its allocation to Chinese equity assets is evident, with a net increase of $10.1 billion in domestic stocks and funds in the first half of the year [4] Group 3 - The expectation of RMB appreciation has led to an acceleration in currency conversion by exporters, with the single-month conversion rate reaching 54.9% in July, the highest since September 2024 [4] - The market anticipates that the RMB exchange rate could appreciate to around 6.76 in three years, driven by factors such as potential Fed rate cuts and the impact of trade policies on the US economy [5] - Despite the positive outlook, there are concerns regarding the uncertain export and trade environment, which may lead to cautious policy measures to control the pace of RMB appreciation [6]