9月以后，如果房价持续出现“暴跌”，有可能出现4大“困局”

Core Viewpoint - The current real estate market in China is experiencing significant adjustments, with concerns about potential price declines affecting both individual homeowners and the broader economy [3][4][5]. Group 1: Market Trends - Recent data indicates a 0.3% month-on-month decline and a 1.7% year-on-year drop in the property price index across 70 major cities in China as of mid-2025 [3]. - First-tier cities show relative stability, while some third and fourth-tier cities have experienced price drops exceeding 5% [3][4]. Group 2: Individual Impact - Homeowners are facing psychological stress due to fears of "negative equity," where property values fall below outstanding mortgage balances, potentially affecting 8% of mortgage-holding families if prices drop by 20% [4][5]. - Behavioral changes among consumers, such as delaying major life decisions and reducing spending, are observed as a response to market uncertainties [4][5]. Group 3: Industry Effects - The real estate sector's downturn could disrupt related industries, including construction materials and home furnishings, leading to a significant decline in orders and sales [5][6]. - A notable 12% drop in sales of major home appliances linked to real estate transactions was reported in the second quarter of 2025 [6]. Group 4: Fiscal Consequences - Local governments are likely to face reduced revenue from land sales, which constituted 16.8% of their total financial resources in 2024, leading to potential cuts in public services and infrastructure projects [7][8]. - A specific city reported an 18% year-on-year decline in land sale revenues, impacting planned public projects [7]. Group 5: Financial System Risks - The banking sector is exposed to risks from real estate loans, with approximately 27% of total bank loans tied to the sector, raising concerns about rising default rates if property values decline [8]. - The non-performing loan ratio for residential mortgages has been on a slight upward trend, indicating growing financial strain [8]. Group 6: Recommendations and Future Outlook - Homeowners are advised to maintain a rational perspective on property value fluctuations and consider diversifying income sources to mitigate financial risks [9][11]. - Potential buyers should make informed decisions based on their financial capabilities, avoiding impulsive actions driven by market fears [11]. - Investors are encouraged to diversify their asset portfolios beyond real estate to reduce risk exposure [13].