摩根士丹利：中国 “反内卷” 政策的市场影响、行业机遇与未来展望（附22只核心受益个股）

Group 1 - The core logic of the "anti-involution" policy is to shift from short-term stimulus to long-term sustainable growth, focusing on reducing excessive competition and restoring industry pricing power [3][33] - The current economic environment is more complex, facing local debt issues, demographic changes, and fragmented export markets, which necessitates a more market-oriented and gradual approach to reforms [6][33] - The "anti-involution" initiative aims to address systemic issues such as local government financing platforms and overcapacity in emerging sectors like solar energy and batteries, where private enterprises dominate [4][6] Group 2 - Morgan Stanley has developed three scenarios for the MSCI China index's return on equity (ROE) based on the effectiveness of the "anti-involution" policy and demand stimulation [7][9] - In the base case scenario, the MSCI China ROE is projected to recover from 11.1% in 2025 to 13.3% by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.9% from 2025 to 2030 [9][10] - The optimistic scenario anticipates a faster recovery, with the MSCI China ROE reaching 16.3% by 2030, driven by improved pricing power and capacity integration [12][14] Group 3 - High-potential industries identified include electric vehicle (EV) batteries, steel, and cement, which are expected to benefit from clear policy support and effective capacity control [20][22][33] - The aviation industry is also highlighted as having potential for profitability recovery through pricing improvements and capacity optimization, although policy progress is currently slow [23][33] - Medium-potential industries such as coal and float glass are characterized by lower reform urgency but have state-owned enterprises leading the market, making integration easier [24][25] Group 4 - The report identifies 22 key stocks across various sectors, including automobiles, consumer services, energy, and materials, that are expected to benefit from the "anti-involution" theme [29][31] - Representative stocks include Geely Automobile, Li Auto, and Contemporary Amperex Technology, which are positioned to gain from battery integration and improved pricing discipline [31][33] - The energy sector is represented by companies like PetroChina and China Shenhua Energy, which are expected to benefit from the elimination of outdated refining capacity [31][33] Group 5 - The "anti-involution" policy has already initiated several measures, with short-term actions focusing on upstream industries like coal, steel, and cement to implement moderate production cuts [32][33] - Medium-term reforms will target structural changes outlined in the 15th Five-Year Plan, including shifts in fiscal policy and social welfare enhancements [32][33] - Long-term strategies will involve market-oriented mergers and efficiency upgrades to optimize the landscape of overcapacity industries [32][33]