汇丰范力民：预计9月后美联储最多将降息3次

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the Federal Reserve is likely to initiate a rate cut in September, with a predicted reduction of 25 basis points [4] - The labor market data released by the U.S. Department of Labor showed a significant drop in job creation, with only 73,000 new jobs added in July, far below the expected 104,000 [4] - There is a shift in market focus from whether the Fed will cut rates in September to how many cuts will occur afterward, with some predicting 5 to 6 cuts, while a more conservative view suggests a maximum of 3 cuts [5] Group 2 - The upcoming 12 months may see significant personnel changes within the Federal Reserve, potentially leading to a new chair and regional Fed presidents, which could influence future rate cuts [7] - The outlook for the Chinese yuan is positive, with expectations that it will strengthen against the U.S. dollar, potentially reaching a range of 7 to 7.05 by the end of the year [7] - The yuan's appreciation is attributed to China's competitive economy, and it is expected to continue strengthening over the next 2 to 3 years, with the dollar index having fallen over 10% since 2025 [7]