德商银行：本周非农数据格外重要

Core Viewpoint - The speech by Powell at the Jackson Hole conference highlighted the downward risks to the economy and employment, balancing the interest rate cut expectations of the U.S. government, markets, and the Federal Open Market Committee against inflation risks potentially triggered by tariffs [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - The focus on labor market data has significantly increased, with its impact weight expected to rise notably [1] - If labor market data falls short of expectations, it could substantially elevate the Fed's interest rate cut expectations, potentially reigniting market speculation for one or more 50 basis point cuts [1] Group 2: Market Reactions - A disappointing ADP report, with a consensus of 80,000 jobs, could lay the groundwork for bearish sentiment towards the dollar, despite the index's limited predictive value for the subsequent non-farm payroll data [1] - In the event of heightened interest rate cut expectations, the dollar is anticipated to face further significant declines [1]