楼市“黄金时代”落幕，五大家庭资产“难题”逐渐映入眼帘

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market is undergoing a profound structural transformation, moving from a time when buying property was almost guaranteed to be profitable to a challenging adjustment period where over 40% of households own two or more properties, leading to significant challenges for many families [1] Group 1: Liquidity Crisis - The second-hand housing market is experiencing an oversupply, with a significant increase in listings in first-tier cities and an average transaction cycle extending beyond six months, indicating a fundamental change in demand [3] - In 2023, the national second-hand housing listings increased by 34% year-on-year, while transaction volumes decreased by 18%, particularly evident in many second-tier cities [3] Group 2: Asset Valuation Reconstruction - Most regions have seen property prices plateau, with a gradual depreciation expected rather than a sharp decline, similar to Japan's long-term price stagnation [4] - Real estate constitutes over 70% of Chinese household wealth, and even a modest annual decline of 3-5% in property values could lead to significant asset erosion over a decade [4] Group 3: Rising Holding Costs - Property management fees are on the rise, with average monthly fees in first-tier cities reaching between 500-800 yuan [6] - Potential expansion of property tax trials could impose additional financial burdens, with estimated annual taxes of 10,000-20,000 yuan for properties valued at 2 million yuan, increasing cash flow pressure for multiple property owners [6] Group 4: Rental Market Transformation - The rental market is also facing oversupply, with rental yields in major cities dropping to between 1.5%-2%, below bank deposit rates, making the "rent-to-pay mortgage" model unsustainable [7] - Many property owners are experiencing high vacancy rates and insufficient rental income to cover mortgage and management costs, leading to increased investment in property renovations to meet tenant demands [7] Group 5: Inheritance Dilemma - The next decade will see a peak in property inheritance, with many properties being passed down from older generations to their only children, often located in non-core areas and facing issues like aging facilities [8] - Young inheritors face challenges in deciding whether to inherit, sell, or rent these properties, often leading to the decision to forgo inheritance due to the burdens associated with these assets [8] Group 6: Response Strategies - First-time buyers should prioritize small units in core locations for better liquidity and lower total costs, rather than pursuing larger luxury properties [10] - Owners of multiple properties should optimize their asset portfolios by retaining high-quality, well-located properties while divesting from older, less desirable ones, even at a loss [10] - A shift in investment perspective is necessary, recognizing that real estate is no longer a guaranteed investment, and families should diversify their wealth rather than concentrating it in real estate [10]