上半年商品期货公募基金业绩“三正一负”

Core Insights - In the first half of 2025, domestic commodity futures public funds showed a performance pattern of "three positives and one negative," with only the Jianxin Yisheng Zhengshang Energy Chemical Futures ETF reporting negative returns [1] - The Guotou Ruijin Silver Futures LOF fund performed exceptionally well, achieving net value growth rates of 14.73% and 14.51% for its A and C shares respectively, driven by the dual attributes of silver as a safe-haven and industrial metal [1] - The Dachen Nonferrous Metals Futures ETF and the Huaxia Feed Soybean Meal Futures ETF reported net value growth rates of 4.38% and 5.01% respectively, while the Jianxin Yisheng Zhengshang Energy Chemical Futures ETF saw a decline of 6.87% [1] Commodity Market Overview - The performance of the Guotou Ruijin Silver Futures LOF fund is attributed to various factors including persistent inflation, economic resilience, tariff uncertainties, and geopolitical risks, with London gold prices reaching historical highs [1][2] - The Dachen Nonferrous Metals Futures ETF's underlying index showed a volatile trend influenced by macroeconomic factors, with copper prices rising due to U.S. tariff policies affecting global resource distribution [2] - The Huaxia Feed Soybean Meal Futures ETF's performance was impacted by drought conditions in South America and adjustments in U.S. soybean yield forecasts, leading to a rebound in market prices [3] Future Market Outlook - Guotou Ruijin anticipates a significant probability of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with a continued loose monetary policy from major central banks, suggesting a favorable global liquidity environment for silver investments [2] - The Dachen Fund highlights ongoing geopolitical tensions that may lead to significant volatility in commodity markets, including oil, gold, and copper [2] - The Jianxin Yisheng Zhengshang Energy Chemical Futures ETF expects a primarily strong oscillating trend in the second half of the year, despite uncertainties in the Middle East and domestic policies [3] Fund Operations - The Dachen Nonferrous Metals Futures ETF capitalized on the forward discount structure of copper and aluminum to gain additional returns in the second quarter [4] - The Huaxia Feed Soybean Meal Futures ETF faced extra costs due to the forward premium structure during the same period [4]