Heritage Insurance Poised for Policy Growth Amid Repositioning?

Core Insights - Heritage Insurance Holdings Inc. (HRTG) has seen a decrease in policies-in-force (PIF) by 0.2 million over four years, while in-force premiums have increased by approximately 27.3% during the same period, indicating a strategic shift towards profitability [1][7] - In Q2 2025, HRTG's PIF decreased slightly, but management anticipates a gradual increase in personal lines PIF in the latter half of 2025, supported by strategic initiatives to re-open profitable regions and expand market share [2][7] - Continued growth in PIF is expected to enhance competitive advantage and premium volumes, aided by prudent underwriting and technological advancements [3] Competitor Analysis - Kinsale Capital (KNSL) has experienced growth in PIF, focusing on disciplined underwriting and underserved risks, which has improved its policy count and underwriting profitability [4] - Kingstone Companies (KINS) has shown robust PIF growth by pivoting towards its core personal lines business, which now constitutes 96% of total PIF, following a strategic exit from underperforming areas [5] Stock Performance - HRTG shares have gained 94.8% year-to-date, outperforming the industry [6] - HRTG's price-to-book value ratio stands at 1.89, above the industry average of 1.56, but it holds a Value Score of B [8] Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for HRTG's EPS for Q3 and Q4 2025 has increased by 103.8% and 6.1%, respectively, with full-year estimates for 2025 and 2026 rising by 26.2% and 12.8% [10][11]