Core Insights - Heritage Insurance Holdings Inc. (HRTG) has seen a decrease in policies-in-force (PIF) by 0.2 million over four years, while in-force premiums have increased by approximately 27.3% during the same period, indicating a strategic shift towards profitability [1][7] - In Q2 2025, HRTG's PIF decreased slightly, but management anticipates a gradual increase in personal lines PIF in the latter half of 2025, supported by strategic initiatives to re-open profitable regions and expand market share [2][7] - Continued growth in PIF is expected to enhance competitive advantage and premium volumes, aided by prudent underwriting and technological advancements [3] Competitor Analysis - Kinsale Capital (KNSL) has experienced growth in PIF, focusing on disciplined underwriting and underserved risks, which has improved its policy count and underwriting profitability [4] - Kingstone Companies (KINS) has shown robust PIF growth by pivoting towards its core personal lines business, which now constitutes 96% of total PIF, following a strategic exit from underperforming areas [5] Stock Performance - HRTG shares have gained 94.8% year-to-date, outperforming the industry [6] - HRTG's price-to-book value ratio stands at 1.89, above the industry average of 1.56, but it holds a Value Score of B [8] Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for HRTG's EPS for Q3 and Q4 2025 has increased by 103.8% and 6.1%, respectively, with full-year estimates for 2025 and 2026 rising by 26.2% and 12.8% [10][11]

Core Insights - Heritage Insurance Holdings, Inc. (HRTG) shares have surged 96.1% year to date, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's increase of 10.1% and the industry's rise of 9.6% [1][9] - The company is strategically focusing on profitability through rate adequacy and selective market re-entry after recent legislative reforms in Florida [5][6] Company Performance - HRTG's stock performance has outpaced peers such as HCI Group Inc. (43.1% increase) and Universal Insurance Holdings (15.8% increase) year to date [2] - The company has halted new personal lines policies in saturated markets but has resumed writing them under a cautious growth strategy [6][9] Strategic Initiatives - For 2025, HRTG plans to selectively re-enter profitable markets while maintaining disciplined capital allocation to protect margins [7] - The company has diversified its portfolio, with 71% of its total insured value outside Florida, enhancing risk distribution and improving claims trends [8][9] Growth Drivers - The excess and surplus (E&S) segment is a key growth area, with plans for expansion into additional states [10] - HRTG is investing in technology and InsurTech initiatives to enhance underwriting expertise and claims handling efficiency [11] Financial Outlook - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for HRTG's 2025 and 2026 earnings has increased by 26.2% and 12.8%, respectively, in the past 30 days [12] - The expected EPS growth for 2025 and 2026 is 104% and 1.2% year-over-year, respectively [14] Profitability Metrics - HRTG's return on equity in the trailing 12 months was 33.4%, significantly higher than the industry average of 7.7% [15] - The return on invested capital (ROIC) was 24.5%, also exceeding the industry average of 5.9% [16][18] Valuation Insights - HRTG's stock is currently trading at a price-to-book multiple of 1.84, above the industry average of 1.57, indicating it may be overvalued [20] - Despite its premium valuation, the stock is considered a buy due to its growth potential and strategic focus [24]

Market Overview - The current market is characterized by uncertainty, with tech stocks facing pressure due to concerns about an artificial intelligence bubble, alongside global tensions, trade disputes, and rising inflation expectations [1][10] - In this environment, value investing is recommended, focusing on purchasing solid companies at reasonable prices [1][10] Earnings Yield - Earnings yield is a key metric that indicates how much a company earns for every dollar invested in its stock, calculated by dividing annual earnings per share (EPS) by market price [3] - A higher earnings yield typically suggests a stock may be undervalued, while a lower yield could indicate overvaluation, assuming other fundamentals are equal [4] - Investors often compare earnings yield with bond yields, particularly the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield, to assess stock attractiveness [5] Screening Criteria for Value Stocks - A primary screening criterion is an earnings yield greater than 10%, supplemented by additional parameters such as estimated EPS growth, average daily volume, and current price [6][7][8] - The estimated EPS growth for the next 12 months should be greater than or equal to the S&P 500, indicating potential for solid returns [6] Selected Stocks - **Plains GP Holdings (PAGP)**: Involved in crude oil and refined products transportation, with a projected earnings growth of 215.4% and 27% for 2025 and 2026, respectively [9] - **Heritage Insurance (HRTG)**: Provides insurance products, with expected earnings growth of 104% and 1.2% for 2025 and 2026, respectively [11] - **The Mosaic Company (MOS)**: A leading producer in agriculture, with projected earnings growth of 60% for 2025 [12] - **LATAM Airlines Group (LTM)**: Latin America's leading airline, with expected earnings growth of 45% and 19% for 2025 and 2026, respectively [13] - **PHINIA Inc. (PHIN)**: Designs fuel systems, with projected earnings growth of 18% for both 2025 and 2026 [14]

Core Insights - The author possesses a strong academic background in economics and politics, focusing on economic development, and has 36 years of executive management experience in the insurance and reinsurance sectors, particularly in Global and Asia Pacific markets, as well as expertise in climate change and ESG [1]. Group 1 - The author has extensive knowledge in the insurance and reinsurance industries, indicating a deep understanding of market dynamics and trends [1]. - The author's experience spans over three decades, suggesting a wealth of insights into economic development and its implications for investment opportunities [1].

PART I – FINANCIAL INFORMATION This section presents the unaudited financial statements, management's discussion, market risk disclosures, and controls and procedures [Item 1. Unaudited Financial Statements](index=6&type=section&id=Item%201%20Unaudited%20Financial%20Statements) The unaudited condensed consolidated financial statements for Heritage Insurance Holdings, Inc. as of June 30, 2025, show an increase in total assets to **$2.54 billion** and a significant rise in total stockholders' equity to **$383.3 million** [Condensed Consolidated Balance Sheets](index=6&type=section&id=Condensed%20Consolidated%20Balance%20Sheets) This section presents the company's financial position, highlighting assets, liabilities, and equity at specific dates Condensed Consolidated Balance Sheet Highlights (in thousands) | Account | June 30, 2025 (unaudited) | December 31, 2024 | | :--- | :--- | :--- | | **Total Assets** | **$2,536,755** | **$2,468,924** | | Total Investments | $671,329 | $663,443 | | Cash and cash equivalents | $473,465 | $452,666 | | Reinsurance recoverable on paid and unpaid claims | $524,045 | $740,204 | | **Total Liabilities** | **$2,153,453** | **$2,178,124** | | Unpaid losses and loss adjustment expenses | $713,183 | $1,042,687 | | Unearned premiums | $762,235 | $702,707 | | Reinsurance payable | $502,280 | $227,060 | | Long-term debt, net | $92,361 | $116,319 | | **Total Stockholders' Equity** | **$383,302** | **$290,799** | [Condensed Consolidated Statements of Operations and Other Comprehensive Income](index=7&type=section&id=Condensed%20Consolidated%20Statements%20of%20Operations%20and%20Other%20Comprehensive%20Income) This section details the company's revenues, expenses, and net income over specific reporting periods Condensed Consolidated Statements of Operations Highlights (in thousands, except per share data) | Metric | Three Months Ended June 30, 2025 | Three Months Ended June 30, 2024 | Six Months Ended June 30, 2025 | Six Months Ended June 30, 2024 | | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Gross premiums written | $410,968 | $424,530 | $766,965 | $781,214 | | Net premiums earned | $196,316 | $190,316 | $396,350 | $369,742 | | Total revenues | $208,035 | $203,571 | $419,554 | $394,873 | | Losses and loss adjustment expenses | $75,620 | $105,928 | $175,027 | $207,963 | | Total expenses | $143,165 | $175,932 | $312,248 | $344,530 | | **Net income** | **$48,024** | **$18,869** | **$78,498** | **$33,094** | | **Diluted EPS** | **$1.55** | **$0.61** | **$2.54** | **$1.08** | [Condensed Consolidated Statements of Stockholders' Equity](index=8&type=section&id=Condensed%20Consolidated%20Statements%20of%20Stockholders'%20Equity) This section outlines changes in the company's equity, including net income and other comprehensive income - Total stockholders' equity increased from **$290.8 million** at December 31, 2024, to **$383.3 million** at June 30, 2025. The growth was primarily driven by net income of **$78.5 million** for the six-month period[19](index=19&type=chunk) - Accumulated other comprehensive loss improved (became less negative) from **$(28.6) million** at the end of 2024 to **$(17.5) million** at June 30, 2025, mainly due to net unrealized gains on investments[19](index=19&type=chunk) [Condensed Consolidated Statements of Cash Flows](index=9&type=section&id=Condensed%20Consolidated%20Statements%20of%20Cash%20Flows) This section summarizes the cash inflows and outflows from operating, investing, and financing activities Condensed Consolidated Statements of Cash Flows Highlights (in thousands) | Cash Flow Activity | For the Six Months Ended June 30, 2025 | For the Six Months Ended June 30, 2024 | | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Net cash provided by operating activities | $44,129 | $156,538 | | Net cash provided by (used in) investing activities | $3,256 | $(138,662) | | Net cash (used in) provided by financing activities | $(24,098) | $671 | | **Increase in cash, cash equivalents, and restricted cash** | **$23,287** | **$18,547** | | **Cash, cash equivalents and restricted cash, end of period** | **$486,932** | **$491,886** | [Notes to Unaudited Condensed Consolidated Financial Statements](index=11&type=section&id=Notes%20to%20Unaudited%20Condensed%20Consolidated%20Financial%20Statements) This section provides additional details and explanations for the financial statements, including significant accounting policies and subsequent events - The company operates as a single reportable segment: residential property insurance[29](index=29&type=chunk)[138](index=138&type=chunk) - The company's reinsurance program for 2025-2026 provides first event coverage up to **$1.6 billion** for Heritage P&C, **$1.1 billion** for NBIC, and **$865.0 million** for Zephyr. The total available limit for 2025 is an aggregate of **$3.75 billion**[79](index=79&type=chunk)[80](index=80&type=chunk) - Subsequent to the quarter end, on July 22, 2025, the company amended and restated its credit agreement, increasing the total senior secured credit facilities to **$200.0 million**. On July 23, 2025, the company sold its Clearwater property for **$16.0 million**, anticipating a pre-tax gain of approximately **$2.5 million**[142](index=142&type=chunk)[143](index=143&type=chunk)[145](index=145&type=chunk) [Item 2. Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations](index=39&type=section&id=Item%202%20Management's%20Discussion%20and%20Analysis%20of%20Financial%20Condition%20and%20Results%20of%20Operations) Management discusses strong Q2 2025 results, with net income of **$48.0 million** and an improved net combined ratio of **72.9%**, driven by rate actions and lower losses [Overview of Financial Results](index=41&type=section&id=Overview%20of%20Financial%20Results) This section provides a high-level summary of the company's financial performance for the reporting period - Q2 2025 net income was **$48.0 million** (**$1.55** per diluted share), up from **$18.9 million** (**$0.61** per diluted share) in Q2 2024. The improvement is attributed to rate actions, underwriting actions, and targeted exposure management[160](index=160&type=chunk) - The net combined ratio for Q2 2025 improved to **72.9%**, a **19.6 point** improvement from **92.5%** in the prior year quarter, driven by a lower net loss ratio (**38.5%** vs **55.7%**) and a lower net expense ratio (**34.4%** vs **36.8%**)[160](index=160&type=chunk)[181](index=181&type=chunk) [Results of Operations](index=42&type=section&id=Results%20of%20Operations) This section provides a detailed analysis of the company's revenues, expenses, and profitability drivers Comparison of Key Metrics (Q2 2025 vs Q2 2024) | Metric | Q2 2025 (Million USD) | Q2 2024 (Million USD) | % Change | | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Gross Premiums Written | $411.0 | $424.5 | (3.2)% | | Net Premiums Earned | $196.3 | $190.3 | 3.2% | | Losses and LAE | $75.6 | $105.9 | (28.6)% | | Net Income | $48.0 | $18.9 | 154.5% | Comparison of Key Metrics (Six Months 2025 vs 2024) | Metric | 6M 2025 (Million USD) | 6M 2024 (Million USD) | % Change | | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Gross Premiums Written | $767.0 | $781.2 | (1.8)% | | Net Premiums Earned | $396.4 | $369.7 | 7.2% | | Losses and LAE | $175.0 | $208.0 | (15.8)% | | Net Income | $78.5 | $33.1 | 137.2% | - Losses and LAE for Q2 2025 decreased **28.6%** year-over-year, driven by lower attritional losses, favorable prior year loss development of **$2.3 million** (compared to adverse development of **$8.7 million** in Q2 2024), and lower weather losses[172](index=172&type=chunk) [Financial Condition and Liquidity](index=51&type=section&id=Financial%20Condition%20and%20Liquidity) This section assesses the company's financial health, capital structure, and ability to meet short-term and long-term obligations - Total shareholders' equity increased by **$92.5 million** to **$383.3 million** at June 30, 2025, from **$290.8 million** at December 31, 2024, primarily due to net income and a reduction in unrealized investment losses[215](index=215&type=chunk) - Long-term debt decreased by **$24.0 million** to **$92.4 million** at June 30, 2025, from **$116.3 million** at year-end 2024, mainly due to the payoff of a **$19.2 million** FHLB-ATL loan in March 2025[214](index=214&type=chunk)[222](index=222&type=chunk) - The company's credit agreement was amended and restated on July 22, 2025, increasing the term loan facility to **$75 million**, adding a **$75 million** delayed draw term loan, and extending the maturity to July 2030[224](index=224&type=chunk) [Item 3. Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures about Market Risk](index=59&type=section&id=Item%203.%20Quantitative%20and%20Qualitative%20Disclosures%20about%20Market%20Risk) Market risk exposure primarily involves interest rate and credit risk, with a portfolio duration of **3.0 years** and an A+ weighted-average credit rating - The duration of the company's financial instruments subject to interest rate risk was **3.0 years** at June 30, 2025, compared to **3.1 years** at December 31, 2024[249](index=249&type=chunk) - Credit risk is managed through a high-quality portfolio; the weighted-average credit quality rating of the fixed maturity securities portfolio was **A+** as of June 30, 2025[249](index=249&type=chunk) [Item 4. Controls and Procedures](index=59&type=section&id=Item%204.%20Controls%20and%20Procedures) Management concluded that disclosure controls and procedures were effective as of June 30, 2025, with no material changes in internal controls - Based on an evaluation as of the end of the period, the Chief Executive Officer and Chief Financial Officer concluded that the company's disclosure controls and procedures were effective as of June 30, 2025[252](index=252&type=chunk) - There were no changes in internal controls over financial reporting during the quarter that materially affected, or are reasonably likely to materially affect, these controls[253](index=253&type=chunk) PART II – OTHER INFORMATION This section covers legal proceedings, risk factors, equity sales, other information, and exhibits [Item 1. Legal Proceedings](index=60&type=section&id=Item%201.%20Legal%20Proceedings) The company is involved in routine legal proceedings not expected to materially impact its financial condition or operations - The company is subject to routine legal proceedings in the ordinary course of business, which are not expected to have a material adverse effect on its business or financial condition[254](index=254&type=chunk) [Item 1A. Risk Factors](index=60&type=section&id=Item%201A.%20Risk%20Factors) No material changes to the company's risk factors have occurred since the 2024 Annual Report on Form 10-K filing - No material changes have occurred in the company's risk factors since the filing of the 2024 Annual Report on Form 10-K[255](index=255&type=chunk) [Item 2. Unregistered Sales of Equity Securities and Use of Proceeds](index=60&type=section&id=Item%202.%20Unregistered%20Sales%20of%20Equity%20Securities%20and%20Use%20of%20Proceeds) This item is not applicable for the reporting period [Item 5. Other Information](index=60&type=section&id=Item%205.%20Other%20Information) Chairman, CEO, and CFO adopted Rule 10b5-1 trading plans for pre-arranged sales of company common stock during Q2 2025 - During Q2 2025, the Chairman, CEO, and CFO each adopted a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan for selling shares of the company's common stock[256](index=256&type=chunk) - The plans provide for the potential sale of up to **250,000 shares** by the Chairman, **100,000 shares** by the CEO, and **60,000 shares** by the CFO, subject to certain conditions[256](index=256&type=chunk)[257](index=257&type=chunk) [Item 6. Exhibits](index=60&type=section&id=Item%206.%20Exhibits) This section lists exhibits filed with the Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q, including CEO and CFO certifications

Heritage Insurance (HRTG -11.54%), a property and casualty insurance provider specializing in residential and commercial lines, released its results for Q2 2025 on August 5, 2025. The period showed a sharp surge in profitability, as GAAP earnings per share reached $1.55—outperforming the analyst estimate of $1.01. Total revenue (GAAP) came in just below expectations at $208.0 million, missing the analyst consensus of $212.1 million. Despite lower-than-expected GAAP revenue and a decline in gross premiums wr ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported net income of $48 million, a significant increase from $18.9 million in the same quarter last year, reflecting a positive trajectory in earnings [4][12] - Gross premiums earned rose to $353.6 million, up 1% from $350.1 million in the prior year quarter, indicating higher gross premiums written due to business growth and rating actions [12] - Net premiums earned increased to $196.3 million, up 3.2% from $190.3 million in the prior year quarter, driven by higher gross premiums earned and a reduction in ceded premiums [13] - The net loss ratio improved by 17.2 points to 38.5% compared to 55.7% in the same quarter last year, reflecting significantly lower net losses [14] - The net combined ratio for the quarter was 72.9%, an improvement of 19.6 points from 92.5% in the prior year quarter, driven by a lower net loss ratio and lower net expense ratio [16] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reunderwrote its personal lines book and implemented necessary rate increases, leading to a steady contraction of over 200,000 policies in force over the last four years [5] - In the second quarter, policies in force decreased by just over 7,700, the smallest decrease since the initiative began in June 2021, indicating a potential inflection point for growth [5] - New business production increased by 46% compared to 2024, reaching the highest level since 2022, with expectations for growth to accelerate in 2026 [6] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company noted strong new business momentum in the Northeast, particularly in New York, and the Mid Atlantic, with Virginia showing strong new business trends [6] - Florida is highlighted as a standalone market with recent legislative reforms positively impacting the economics of writing new, profitable business [7] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on a managed growth strategy, aiming to return policies in force to moderate growth in the latter half of the year before accelerating in 2026 [11] - Continued investment in customer service, claims management, and technology resources is emphasized, with an ongoing IT conversion to a Guidewire platform expected to enhance operational efficiency [9] - The company maintains a disciplined underwriting process while opening new territories, which has resulted in a lower net loss ratio this quarter [8] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the growth opportunities across various regions, citing significant room for expansion and market share growth [7] - The company anticipates a favorable impact on reinsurance pricing in 2026 due to legislative changes in Florida and the maturation of Hurricane Milton's claims [10] - Management reiterated a commitment to long-term profitability, shareholder value, and customer service, driven by a dedicated workforce [11][19] Other Important Information - The company ended the quarter with total assets of $2.5 billion and shareholders' equity of $383.3 million, with book value per share increasing to $12.36, up 30.1% from the previous year [17] - The refinancing of senior credit facilities was completed on favorable terms, increasing the facility to $200 million while extending the maturity to July 2030 [18] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you discuss the attritional loss trajectory over the last year and through the second quarter? - Management indicated that attritional losses are stabilizing, with frequency continuing to decline and severity running at a modest rate, suggesting a potential leveling off [24][25] Question: How do you see the competition in the market, especially with recent public equity offerings in Florida? - Management noted that agents are enthusiastic about the company's reopening and welcomed responsible competition, although new carriers are primarily focusing on the citizens take-out program [27][28] Question: What are the expected trends for primary rates for the remainder of the year? - Management expects primary rates to trend upward across most geographies, but at a moderated pace due to achieving rate adequacy [30] Question: How has the loss experience been in the Northeast and Mid Atlantic markets? - Management stated that the Northeast is expected to see positive growth, with recent rate approvals aiding the process [32] Question: Can you compare catastrophe and weather losses to prior years? - Management reported a year-over-year decrease in non-catastrophe weather losses, attributing it to improved underwriting performance and better risk management [36] Question: Can you elaborate on prior period development and reserve strengthening? - Management confirmed that some favorable development is due to reserve strengthening from the previous year, indicating a positive trend [38]

Financial Performance - Premiums-in-force increased by 0.5% year-over-year, reaching $1.43 billion in Q2 2025[49] - Total insured value decreased by 4.7% compared to Q2 2024[50] - Policy count decreased by 11.9% compared to Q2 2024, reflecting selective underwriting[50] - Net combined ratio improved significantly, decreasing by 19.6 points to 72.9%[66] - Net loss ratio decreased by 17.2 points to 38.5%, driven by lower net losses and LAE[66] - Earnings before taxes increased by $38.1 million year-over-year to $63.0 million in Q2 2025[64] Strategic Initiatives - The company is shifting towards a controlled growth strategy, leveraging existing infrastructure while focusing on risk management and underwriting[35] - Diversification efforts have resulted in 71.1% of total insured value positioned outside of Florida as of Q2 2025[23] - A new share repurchase plan authorized $10.0 million through December 31, 2025[68] Reinsurance Program - The 2025 CAT XOL limit includes $1.1 billion in the Northeast, $1.6 billion in the Southeast, and $865 million in Hawaii[38]

Core Viewpoint - Heritage Insurance reported a revenue of $208.04 million for the quarter ended June 2025, marking a year-over-year increase of 2.2% and an EPS of $1.55, significantly higher than the $0.61 from the previous year, indicating strong earnings performance despite missing revenue estimates [1]. Financial Performance - The reported revenue of $208.04 million was below the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $212.13 million, resulting in a revenue surprise of -1.93% [1]. - The company achieved an EPS surprise of +50.49%, with the consensus EPS estimate being $1.03 [1]. - Heritage Insurance's shares have returned -8.4% over the past month, contrasting with the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +1% change, reflecting underperformance relative to the broader market [3]. Key Metrics - Ceded Premium Ratio was reported at 44.5%, slightly above the estimated 44.4% [4]. - Combined Ratio stood at 72.9%, significantly better than the average estimate of 83.6% [4]. - Expense Ratio was reported at 34.4%, lower than the average estimate of 35.1% [4]. - Net investment income was $9.03 million, exceeding the average estimate of $8.63 million, but showing a year-over-year decline of -7.5% [4]. - Net premiums earned were $196.32 million, slightly below the average estimate of $200.11 million, reflecting a year-over-year increase of +3.2% [4]. - Other revenue was reported at $2.68 million, below the average estimate of $3.38 million, indicating a year-over-year decrease of -22.8% [4].

Heritage Insurance (HRTG) came out with quarterly earnings of $1.55 per share, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.03 per share. This compares to earnings of $0.61 per share a year ago. These figures are adjusted for non-recurring items. This quarterly report represents an earnings surprise of +50.49%. A quarter ago, it was expected that this property and casualty insurance holding company would post earnings of $0.46 per share when it actually produced earnings of $0.99, delivering a surprise of +11 ...