央行集体“囤黄金”，持有量首超美债！金价突破3600美元只是开始？

Group 1: Gold Price Surge - Gold futures prices have recently surged, breaking through the $3600 per ounce mark, reaching a high of $3602.4 and closing at $3599.5, setting a new historical record [1] - The spot gold market in London also saw significant increases, with prices rising above $3533 per ounce, marking a daily increase of $57.04, or 1.64% [1] - Year-to-date, gold futures prices have increased by 36%, significantly outperforming the S&P 500 index's 8% and Bitcoin's 19% [1] Group 2: Central Bank Demand - Global central banks are increasingly favoring gold, with foreign central bank gold holdings surpassing U.S. Treasury holdings for the first time since 1996, marking a significant global rebalancing [2] - A survey by the World Gold Council indicates that most central banks expect to increase their gold reserves in the next 12 months, with the People's Bank of China being a notable buyer for eight consecutive months [2] Group 3: Economic Factors Influencing Gold - Market expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut are driving gold prices higher, with a 90% probability of a 25 basis point cut anticipated in September [5] - Geopolitical tensions and concerns over economic recession are heightening demand for gold as a safe-haven asset, with various global conflicts contributing to market anxiety [5][6] Group 4: Institutional Outlook on Gold - Major financial institutions are optimistic about gold's future, with UBS predicting a price of $3700 per ounce by June 2026 and Morgan Stanley setting a year-end target of $3800 per ounce [8] - Goldman Sachs also forecasts gold prices could reach $4000 per ounce by mid-2026, supported by ongoing central bank purchases and inflows into gold ETFs [8] Group 5: Domestic Market Trends - In the domestic market, gold prices are rising, with notable increases in jewelry prices reported [9] - National gold consumption reached 523.753 tons in the first half of 2024, with a strong performance in gold bars and coins, which saw a 46.02% year-on-year increase [9]