TF Securities(SH:601162) 智通财经网·2025-09-03 23:59Core Viewpoint - The gold market is expected to continue its upward trend in 2023, driven by four main factors: the independence of the Federal Reserve, expectations of interest rate cuts, uncertainty surrounding tariffs, and the ongoing trend of "de-dollarization" [1][6]. Group 1: Factors Driving Gold Prices - Federal Reserve Independence: Concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve have intensified, particularly with Trump's influence over the board. A loss of independence could lead to increased inflation risks, debt issues, and a weakened dollar, driving investors towards safe-haven assets like gold [2]. - Interest Rate Cut Expectations: The market anticipates a 91.7% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September, up from 75% prior to the JH meeting. Historically, gold has risen during most rate cut cycles, making this a significant factor for its price increase [3]. - Geopolitical and Economic Uncertainty: Recent court rulings regarding tariffs and ongoing geopolitical tensions, such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict, have heightened market uncertainty, further increasing demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [4]. - De-dollarization Trend: Global central banks are increasingly purchasing gold, with it becoming the second-largest reserve asset after the dollar. This trend is expected to support gold demand amid rising concerns over U.S. fiscal policies and the dollar's stability [5]. Group 2: Market Outlook - Continued Upward Pressure: The macroeconomic environment is expected to maintain strong demand for gold from both private sectors and ETFs, which will likely attract more capital inflows and support higher gold prices [6][7].