美国经济韧性面临考验 消费疲软与成本压力成主基调

Economic Overview - The latest Federal Reserve's Beige Book presents a complex and differentiated picture of the U.S. economy, highlighting stagnation or contraction in most regions, with weak consumer spending, rising business costs, and policy uncertainty as major challenges [1] Consumer Spending - Nationwide consumer spending is showing signs of weakness, with households facing increased burdens from fixed expenses like insurance and utilities, squeezing discretionary spending [2] - Retail and tourism sectors are responding to declining demand with widespread discounting strategies, particularly in price-sensitive product categories [2] - A decrease in international tourist numbers is further hindering the recovery of tourism-related industries [2] Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing sector is undergoing significant transformation in response to rising raw material costs due to tariffs and global supply chain restructuring [3] - Companies are accelerating the shift towards localized sourcing and increasing investments in automation to reduce labor costs [3] - The commercialization of artificial intelligence technology is a highlight, with a surge in demand for data center construction in cities like Philadelphia, Cleveland, and Chicago, driving hardware manufacturing expansion [3] Labor Market - The employment market is exhibiting a delicate balance, with stable employment levels in 11 regions and slight declines in a few [4] - In a weak demand environment, companies are delaying hiring and optimizing workforce through natural attrition and technological replacements [4] - A significant reduction in immigration is impacting industries like construction, particularly in immigrant-heavy areas such as New York and St. Louis, leading to labor shortages [4] - While half of the regions report moderate wage growth, concerns remain about wage increases not keeping pace with inflation [4] Regional Economic Performance - Economic performance varies significantly across Federal Reserve districts, with Boston experiencing slight expansion driven by the AI sector, while Atlanta shows mild contraction despite a vibrant energy sector [5] - Dallas benefits from a rebound in durable goods orders, boosting manufacturing, whereas Minneapolis and San Francisco face simultaneous weaknesses in manufacturing and agriculture [5] - The commercial real estate market is also uneven, with strong demand for quality office and warehouse spaces, but rising vacancy rates in ordinary retail properties [5] Price Trends - Approximately 90% of regions report moderate to moderate price increases, with two regions experiencing input cost surges that exceed end-product price increases [6] - The effects of tariffs are particularly evident in basic construction materials like lumber and metals, prompting contractors to reassess project feasibility [6] - Most companies anticipate further price increases in the coming months, indicating ongoing cost transmission mechanisms [6] Policy Environment - The Beige Book underscores multiple constraints facing the U.S. economy in the late expansion phase, including high interest rates suppressing housing market activity, fiscal policy uncertainty disrupting business investment plans, and geopolitical risks raising trade costs [7] - Federal Reserve policymakers are confronted with challenging trade-offs, needing to prevent economic recession while curbing persistent high inflation [7] - Market attention is focused on the upcoming monetary policy meeting and whether it will signal a shift towards a more dovish stance [7]